San Antonio vs Orange County: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 22hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%O2.545%43%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Orange County2:0San AntonioL
- Orange County1:0San AntonioL
- San Antonio3:1Orange CountyW
- Orange County2:0San AntonioL
- San Antonio0:0Orange CountyD
San Antonio's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.2under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.4
San Antonio : Orange CountyMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-012%0-09%2-0—2-19%0-19%Attack/defence1-113%1-013%0-09%2-09%2-19%0-19%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-013%0-00-09%0-09%2-02-0—2-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-19%0-19%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 77%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%69% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%57% | 57% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%53% | 53% |
| 1 – San Antonio win | 45%47% · Elo 46% | 47%· Elo 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%43% | 43% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%31% | 31% |
| 2 – Orange County win | 28%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 27% | 28%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
San Antonio attack vs Orange County defenceattack1432defence14320 pts to the attack
Orange County attack vs San Antonio defenceattack1469defence1545−76 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 7.7 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.550%51%
8.537%34%
9.525%28%
10.516%24%
Each team on its own
San Antoniowe expect 4.8, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Orange Countywe expect 2.8, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 64%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 36%over
We expect 25.0 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.571%63%
22.564%52%
23.558%46%
24.551%41%
Each team on its own
San Antoniowe expect 12.8, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 61%
Orange Countywe expect 12.5, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.577%70%
2.553%55%
3.531%39%
4.516%17%
Each team on its own
San Antoniowe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Orange Countywe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Orange County concede 2.5 goals per game
- San Antonio score only 0.4 goals per game
- Orange County: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- San Antonio: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Orange County: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orange County | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win San Antonio vs Orange County?
San Antonio are the favourites. Chances: San Antonio win 45%, draw 27%, Orange County win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in San Antonio vs Orange County?
Expected goals: 2.5 (San Antonio 1.4, Orange County 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is San Antonio vs Orange County?
The USL Championship match kicks off 25 October 2026, 01:30 (UK time).