ATP Tour Finals TurinFinalsRound robinhard, indoorbest of three sets
Alcaraz vs Medvedev: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from Elo (no market). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Carlos Alcaraz80%
Daniil Medvedev20%
Elo: C. Alcaraz 80% · D. Medvedev 20%
from Elo (no market)
Set score
2:0 C. Alcaraz53%
2:1 C. Alcaraz22%
2:1 D. Medvedev11%
2:0 D. Medvedev14%
First set
Carlos Alcaraz69%
Daniil Medvedev31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%
Total games
Expected total: 23.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 75% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 51% | 49% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 38% |
Sample: 7,318 matches
Games handicap
C. Alcaraz −3.556%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes38%
tour average 37%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| C. Alcaraz | Tour | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 67% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 87% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 29% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.73 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.18 | 0.32 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 23% | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/28 | 10/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 69% | |
| Matches in the sample | 49 | 71 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Carlos Alcaraz
- 08/11/26WBen Shelton#4ATP Paris · F7:6 7:5
- 07/11/26WCasper Ruud#18ATP Paris · SF6:4 6:4
- 06/11/26WTaylor Fritz#10ATP Paris · QF6:7 7:5 6:3
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
- 01/11/26WAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · F6:1 6:4
- 31/10/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · SF6:4 7:6
- 30/10/26WTommy Paul#13ATP Vienna · QF6:4 7:6
- 29/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#86ATP Vienna · R166:1 7:6
- 27/10/26WKaren Khachanov#24ATP Vienna · R326:4 7:6
- 12/10/26LZizou Bergs#44ATP Shanghai · R325:7 6:7
Daniil Medvedev
- 04/11/26LIgnacio Buse#32ATP Paris · R324:6 4:6
- 31/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Vienna · SF4:6 6:7
- 30/10/26WAdrian Mannarino#61ATP Vienna · QF6:2 6:3
- 29/10/26WCameron Norrie#53ATP Vienna · R164:6 6:3 7:6
- 28/10/26WDaniel Merida#42ATP Vienna · R327:6 6:1
- 25/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#86ATP Almaty · F6:7 6:1 6:3
- 24/10/26WAlexander Bublik#26ATP Almaty · SF6:3
- 23/10/26WTerence Atmane#75ATP Almaty · QF6:4 6:4
- 22/10/26WSho Shimabukuro#123ATP Almaty · R166:2 6:1
- 17/10/26LRafael Jodar#11ATP Shanghai · SF3:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Carlos AlcarazDaniil Medvedev
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| C. Alcaraz | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 38–588% | 41–1277% |
| Clay | 5–183% | 5–456% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 6–367% |
Head to head
C. Alcaraz 7–3 D. Medvedev
- 31/10/26Winner: C. Alcaraz6:4 7:6
- 14/03/26Winner: D. Medvedev3:6 6:7
- 01/10/24Winner: C. Alcaraz7:5 6:3
- 12/07/24Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 6:3 6:4 6:4
- 17/03/24Winner: C. Alcaraz7:6 6:1
- 17/11/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:4 6:4
- 08/09/23Winner: D. Medvedev6:7 1:6 6:3 3:6
- 14/07/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:3 6:3 6:3
- 19/03/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:3 6:2
- 01/07/21Winner: D. Medvedev4:6 1:6 2:6
Upcoming matches
- Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Flavio Cobolli, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe, · ATP Tour Finals Turin