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WTA GuangzhouWTA 250Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Badosa vs Dart 1:2: result and our tips

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Paula BadosaWTA #57Elo 1930hard 1907
1:2final6:3 2:6 4:6
Harriet DartWTA #84Elo 1726hard 1740

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

How our tips did

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Paula Badosa71%
Harriet Dart29%

Elo: P. Badosa 72% · H. Dart 28%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Badosa48%
2:1 P. Badosa21%
2:1 H. Dart14%
2:0 H. Dart17%

First set

Paula Badosa66%
Harriet Dart34%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%25%72%
18.567%33%64%
19.559%41%56%
20.552%48%49%
21.546%54%44%
22.540%61%38%
23.536%64%34%

Sample: 1,931 matches

Games handicap

P. Badosa −4.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 27 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Paula BadosaHarriet Dart
2Aces7
10Double faults9
52%First serves in46%
54%First-serve points won76%
43%Second-serve points won38%
5/7Break points converted7/20
7/14Service games held8/13
49%Service points won55%
45%Return points won51%
82Total points won93

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. BadosaTourH. Dart
Service points won57%56%55%
Return points won45%44%47%
Service games held68%63%60%
Breaks of serve37%37%44%
Aces per service game0.370.20
Double faults per game0.590.40
Sets with a tie-break12%8%
Tie-breaks won7/142/7
Wins in straight sets76%33%
Matches in the sample5035

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Paula Badosa

Harriet Dart

Elo over the last year

Paula BadosaHarriet Dart

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. BadosaH. Dart
Hard court14–1254%19–870%
Clay13–668%1–150%
Grass2–340%1–517%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Paula Badosa

Harriet Dart

Upcoming matches

See also