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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Bellucci vs Rinderknech 0:2: result and our tips

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Mattia BellucciATP #66Elo 1966hard 1941
0:2final4:6 1:6
Arthur RinderknechATP #68Elo 1917hard 1888

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 22.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 51% → with the players' profiles 60%

Rinderknech: 11 matches in a row over 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 39%

Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Bellucci 6 of 20, Rinderknech 11 of 20 (tour average 30%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mattia Bellucci57%
Arthur Rinderknech44%

Elo: M. Bellucci 58% · A. Rinderknech 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Bellucci35%
2:1 M. Bellucci21%
2:1 A. Rinderknech20%
2:0 A. Rinderknech25%

First set

Mattia Bellucci55%
Arthur Rinderknech45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.573%27%60%
21.565%35%54%
22.560%40%46%
23.551%49%40%
24.545%55%38%
25.543%57%35%
26.539%61%30%

Sample: 5,902 matches

Games handicap

M. Bellucci −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes53%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 23.5out · 17 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mattia BellucciArthur Rinderknech
2Aces7
2Double faults1
64%First serves in83%
57%First-serve points won80%
50%Second-serve points won63%
0/0Break points converted3/3
5/8Service games held9/9
55%Service points won77%
23%Return points won46%
35Total points won57

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BellucciTourA. Rinderknech
Service points won66%62%67%
Return points won37%38%33%
Service games held83%76%86%
Breaks of serve22%24%15%
Aces per service game0.580.88
Double faults per game0.240.24
Sets with a tie-break18%26%
Tie-breaks won15/3011/27
Wins in straight sets74%44%
Matches in the sample7237

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mattia Bellucci

Arthur Rinderknech

Elo over the last year

Mattia BellucciArthur Rinderknech

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BellucciA. Rinderknech
Hard court31–1863%7–1139%
Clay7–750%7–847%
Grass5–456%2–340%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Mattia Bellucci

Arthur Rinderknech

See also