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Challenger NingboChallenger 75Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Demin vs Hsu 2:1: result and our tips

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Yaroslav DeminATP #358Elo 1608hard 1604
2:1final7:5 1:6 6:4
Yu Hsiou HsuATP #304Elo 1639hard 1643

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Lost64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 25.5 games in recent matches: Demin 14 of 16, Hsu 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No tie-break in recent matches: Demin 11 of 16, Hsu 17 of 20 (tour average 68%)

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Demin 14 of 16, Hsu 13 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Demin: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Yaroslav Demin42%
Yu Hsiou Hsu58%

Elo: Y. Demin 44% · Y. Hsu 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Y. Demin25%
2:1 Y. Demin17%
2:1 Y. Hsu21%
2:0 Y. Hsu37%

First set

Yaroslav Demin44%
Yu Hsiou Hsu56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,973 matches

Games handicap

Y. Hsu −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Yaroslav DeminYu Hsiou Hsu
5Aces1
11Double faults2
59%First serves in71%
63%First-serve points won65%
55%Second-serve points won54%
4/8Break points converted4/14
10/14Service games held11/15
60%Service points won62%
39%Return points won40%
93Total points won95

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Y. DeminTourY. Hsu
Service points won62%62%60%
Return points won38%38%38%
Service games held78%76%74%
Breaks of serve24%24%21%
Aces per service game0.400.27
Double faults per game0.360.17
Sets with a tie-break15%11%
Tie-breaks won4/58/12
Wins in straight sets90%48%
Matches in the sample1645

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Yaroslav Demin

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Elo over the last year

Yaroslav DeminYu Hsiou Hsu

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Y. DeminY. Hsu
Hard court8–562%16–1748%
Clay2–167%3–443%
Grass0–02–433%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Yaroslav Demin

Yu Hsiou Hsu

See also