Etcheverry vs de Minaur: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Etcheverry lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches, de Minaur won 2-0 in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: T. Etcheverry 17% · A. de Minaur 83%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.0
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 43% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 35% | 65% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 32% | 68% | 38% |
Sample: 2,552 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Etcheverry | Tour | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 17% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.50 | 0.36 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.14 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 24% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/35 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 46% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 55 | 65 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tomás Martín Etcheverry
- 03/11/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Paris · R646:4 6:7 7:6
- 26/10/26LMatteo Berrettini#43ATP Vienna · R323:6 4:6
- 21/10/26LMattia Bellucci#66ATP Almaty · R326:7 6:2 4:6
- 10/10/26LDalibor Svrcina#119ATP Shanghai · R643:6 6:3 5:7
- 01/10/26LStefanos Tsitsipas#34ATP Tokyo · R326:4 3:6 4:6
- 25/09/26LKyrian Jacquet#80ATP Hangzhou · R162:6 3:6
- 06/09/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · R166:7 4:6 4:6
- 04/09/26WMariano Navone#48ATP US Open · R326:4 6:4 6:3
- 02/09/26WJacob Fearnley#90ATP US Open · R646:3 6:3 3:6 6:3
- 30/08/26WVit Kopriva#62ATP US Open · R1286:3 6:4 6:0
Alex de Minaur
- 01/11/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Vienna · F1:6 4:6
- 31/10/26WAlexander Zverev#1ATP Vienna · SF6:4 1:6 7:6
- 30/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#43ATP Vienna · QF7:6 6:2
- 28/10/26WLearner Tien#19ATP Vienna · R166:4 6:2
- 26/10/26WTomáš Macháč#69ATP Vienna · R321:6 6:4 6:3
- 15/10/26LAlexander Zverev#1ATP Shanghai · QF4:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WKaren Khachanov#25ATP Shanghai · R166:3 6:4
- 11/10/26WRei Sakamoto#123ATP Shanghai · R327:6 6:4
- 06/10/26LNovak Djokovic#11ATP Beijing · F6:7 1:0
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Etcheverry | A. de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 10–1540% | 27–1466% |
| Clay | 18–1064% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 0–30% | 8–373% |
Head to head
T. Etcheverry 1–1 A. de Minaur
- 15/04/25Winner: A. de Minaur4:6 4:6
- 01/06/23Winner: T. Etcheverry6:3 7:6 6:3
Road through the tournament
Tomás Martín Etcheverry
- 03/11/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Paris · R646:4 6:7 7:6
Alex de Minaur
First match in this tournament.