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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Fenty vs Poling 2:1: result and our tips

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Andrew FentyATP #489Elo 1558hard 1548
2:1final6:3 5:7 6:4
Karl PolingATP #453Elo 1447hard 1444

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: FentyWon65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Poling lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Andrew Fenty62%
Karl Poling38%

Elo: A. Fenty 64% · K. Poling 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Fenty41%
2:1 A. Fenty22%
2:1 K. Poling16%
2:0 K. Poling22%

First set

Andrew Fenty59%
Karl Poling41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 53%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%41%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,900 matches

Games handicap

A. Fenty −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 31 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Andrew FentyKarl Poling
11Aces7
3Double faults2
72%First serves in72%
71%First-serve points won69%
36%Second-serve points won35%
4/8Break points converted3/12
13/16Service games held11/15
62%Service points won59%
41%Return points won39%
114Total points won106

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. FentyTourK. Poling
Service points won62%62%63%
Return points won38%38%39%
Service games held76%76%78%
Breaks of serve24%24%25%
Aces per service game0.410.21
Double faults per game0.310.24
Sets with a tie-break11%25%
Tie-breaks won3/89/27
Wins in straight sets93%59%
Matches in the sample3546

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Andrew Fenty

  • 26/10/26LTimo Legout#338Challenger Sioux Falls · Q23:6 6:2 3:6
  • 25/10/26WCooper WoestendickChallenger Sioux Falls · Q17:5 6:2
  • 18/10/26LKaylan Bigun#523Challenger Fort Worth · Q13:6 6:1 3:6
  • 30/09/26LDylan Dietrich#189Challenger Columbus · R165:7 2:6
  • 29/09/26WIgor Marcondes#279Challenger Columbus · R326:2 6:4
  • 21/09/26LErik Arutiunian#575Challenger San Diego 2 · Q23:6 3:6
  • 20/09/26WKaylan Bigun#523Challenger San Diego 2 · Q17:5 6:4
  • 13/09/26LRyan Seggerman#563Challenger Tiburon · Q17:6 5:7 2:6
  • 27/08/26LLuis Guto Miguel#547Challenger Kingston 2 · QF5:7 5:7
  • 26/08/26WKeshav Chopra#694Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:2 6:3

Karl Poling

  • 27/10/26LSebastian Dominko#456Challenger Sioux Falls · R324:6 6:7
  • 26/10/26WPatrick Zahraj#540Challenger Sioux Falls · Q27:6 7:6
  • 25/10/26WMaxwell Exsted#892Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:3 6:2
  • 18/10/26LAlex Rybakov#641Challenger Fort Worth · Q14:6 4:6
  • 27/09/26LPatrick Zahraj#540Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q16:3 3:6 2:6
  • 22/09/26LTitouan Droguet#79Challenger Saint Tropez · R327:6 4:6 6:7
  • 21/09/26LMoez Echargui#349Challenger Saint Tropez · Q24:6 6:7
  • 20/09/26WYanis Ghazouani Durand#532Challenger Saint Tropez · Q16:2 6:1
  • 13/09/26LNikola Slavic#865Challenger Rennes · Q16:7 7:6 6:7
  • 25/08/26LThomas Fancutt#691Challenger Kingston 2 · R324:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Andrew FentyKarl Poling

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. FentyK. Poling
Hard court14–1844%16–2143%
Clay1–233%6–367%

Head to head

A. Fenty 2–0 K. Poling

  • 28/06/26Winner: A. Fenty6:3 6:3
  • 13/10/25Winner: A. Fenty6:2 7:5

Upcoming matches

See also