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ATP Stockholm250Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Fritz vs Rune: prediction and tips

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Taylor FritzATP #10Elo 2150hard 2112
-:-
Holger RuneATP #406Elo 2067hard 2035

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Fritz62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Rune lost the first set in 5 of the last 8 matches (tour average 50%); Fritz won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Fritz67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fritz won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Set Betting: Fritz 2-043%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz won 2-0 in 11 of the last 20 matches, Rune lost 0-2 in 2 of the last 8 matches (tour average 32%); Fritz won 2-0 in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Taylor Fritz67%
Holger Rune33%

Elo: T. Fritz 61% · H. Rune 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Fritz43%
2:1 T. Fritz23%
2:1 H. Rune15%
2:0 H. Rune20%

First set

Taylor Fritz62%
Holger Rune38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.5 · 50%market (no margin): 48%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.572%28%60%
21.564%36%54%
22.558%42%46%
23.550%50%40%
24.543%57%38%
25.540%60%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,531 matches

Games handicap

T. Fritz −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes55%

tour average 39%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. FritzTourH. Rune
Service points won71%62%65%
Return points won35%38%33%
Service games held89%76%83%
Breaks of serve17%24%16%
Aces per service game1.030.49
Double faults per game0.130.21
Sets with a tie-break22%19%
Tie-breaks won23/362/4
Wins in straight sets61%25%
Matches in the sample628

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Taylor Fritz

Holger Rune

Elo over the last year

Taylor FritzHolger Rune

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. FritzH. Rune
Hard court32–1470%4–450%
Clay0–20%0–0
Grass11–379%0–0

Head to head

T. Fritz 2–1 H. Rune

  • 09/10/24Winner: T. Fritz6:1 6:2
  • 14/03/24Winner: H. Rune6:2 6:7 3:6
  • 28/03/23Winner: T. Fritz6:3 6:4

Road through the tournament

Taylor Fritz

Holger Rune

Upcoming matches

See also