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Challenger Costa do SauipeChallenger 175Round of 16claybest of three sets

Heide vs Prado Angelo 1:2: result and our tips

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Gustavo HeideATP #112Elo 1820clay 1843
1:2final0:6 6:3 4:6
Juan Carlos Prado AngeloATP #193Elo 1719clay 1726

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoWon75%

Where the number comes from: market alone 69% → with the players' profiles 75%

No tie-break in recent matches: Heide 18 of 20, Prado Angelo 17 of 20 (tour average 73%); Prado Angelo: 12 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • Match Winner: HeideLost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Heide won 7 of the last 10 matches

  • 1st Set Winner: HeideLost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Heide won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches, Prado Angelo lost the first set in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 39%

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Heide 11 of 20, Prado Angelo 10 of 20 (tour average 41%); Prado Angelo: 3 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gustavo Heide59%
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo41%

Elo: G. Heide 66% · J. Prado Angelo 34%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Heide38%
2:1 G. Heide22%
2:1 J. Prado Angelo17%
2:0 J. Prado Angelo23%

First set

Gustavo Heide58%
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo42%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.570%31%68%
19.561%39%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.549%51%46%
22.543%57%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.537%63%34%

Sample: 4,960 matches

Games handicap

G. Heide −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Gustavo HeideJuan Carlos Prado Angelo
5Aces1
3Double faults0
53%First serves in73%
76%First-serve points won66%
41%Second-serve points won80%
2/3Break points converted4/6
8/12Service games held11/13
60%Service points won69%
31%Return points won40%
66Total points won81

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. HeideTourJ. Prado Angelo
Service points won63%62%59%
Return points won41%38%41%
Service games held79%76%69%
Breaks of serve29%24%31%
Aces per service game0.380.18
Double faults per game0.430.18
Sets with a tie-break9%13%
Tie-breaks won11/1514/20
Wins in straight sets77%69%
Matches in the sample7264

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gustavo Heide

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Elo over the last year

Gustavo HeideJuan Carlos Prado Angelo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. HeideJ. Prado Angelo
Hard court1–517%5–645%
Clay46–1872%31–2160%
Grass1–150%0–10%

Head to head

G. Heide 1–1 J. Prado Angelo

  • 02/04/26Winner: G. Heide6:4 6:3
  • 14/10/25Winner: J. Prado Angelo4:6 6:3 5:7

Road through the tournament

Gustavo Heide

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Upcoming matches

See also