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Challenger BrestChallenger 125Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Kouame vs Maestrelli 2:0: result and our tips

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Moise KouameATP #132Elo 1696hard 1681
2:0final6:3 6:4
Francesco MaestrelliATP #176Elo 1653hard 1668

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Kouame: 7 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Kouame: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A tie-break in recent matches: Kouame 6 of 20, Maestrelli 13 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Moise Kouame66%
Francesco Maestrelli34%

Elo: M. Kouame 52% · F. Maestrelli 48%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Kouame44%
2:1 M. Kouame22%
2:1 F. Maestrelli15%
2:0 F. Maestrelli20%

First set

Moise Kouame62%
Francesco Maestrelli38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.567%33%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 5,455 matches

Games handicap

M. Kouame −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Moise KouameFrancesco Maestrelli
3Aces13
3Double faults0
58%First serves in76%
87%First-serve points won78%
56%Second-serve points won21%
2/4Break points converted0/5
10/10Service games held7/9
73%Service points won64%
36%Return points won27%
68Total points won55

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. KouameTourF. Maestrelli
Service points won61%62%63%
Return points won38%38%36%
Service games held76%76%79%
Breaks of serve24%24%20%
Aces per service game0.410.57
Double faults per game0.400.29
Sets with a tie-break11%21%
Tie-breaks won5/1115/29
Wins in straight sets63%58%
Matches in the sample4157

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Moise Kouame

Francesco Maestrelli

Elo over the last year

Moise KouameFrancesco Maestrelli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. KouameF. Maestrelli
Hard court17–1553%24–1857%
Clay2–722%2–1017%
Grass0–00–30%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Moise Kouame

Francesco Maestrelli

Upcoming matches

See also