Paul vs Rune 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 56% → with the players' profiles 61%
Rune: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games
Other tips
- Match Winner: PaulWon67%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Paul won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 32% → with the players' profiles 35%
Rune: 4 matches in a row over 26.5 games; Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Paul 7 of 20, Rune 4 of 5 (tour average 30%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: T. Paul 57% · H. Rune 43%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 69% | 31% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 39% | 61% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 35% | 65% | 30% |
Sample: 5,344 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 22.5out · 22 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Tommy Paul | Holger Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Aces | 7 |
| 1 | Double faults | 4 |
| 67% | First serves in | 50% |
| 80% | First-serve points won | 76% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 45% |
| 3/4 | Break points converted | 1/4 |
| 10/11 | Service games held | 8/11 |
| 70% | Service points won | 60% |
| 40% | Return points won | 30% |
| 70 | Total points won | 55 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Paul | Tour | H. Rune | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 33% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 14% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.45 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 29% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 15/30 | 2/4 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 0% | |
| Matches in the sample | 66 | 5 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tommy Paul
- 30/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Vienna · QF4:6 6:7
- 29/10/26WLuciano Darderi#21ATP Vienna · R166:1 6:1
- 27/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Vienna · R327:5 6:2
- 24/10/26LTaylor Fritz#12ATP Lyon · SF3:6 5:7
- 23/10/26WCorentin Moutet#111ATP Lyon · QF6:4 3:6 6:3
- 21/10/26WBenjamin Bonzi#95ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:7 6:3
- 16/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Shanghai · QF3:6 6:1 3:6
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#40ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#27ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
- 10/10/26WAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Shanghai · R646:2 6:2
Holger Rune
- 30/10/26LValentin Vacherot#27ATP Basel · QF3:6 6:3 3:6
- 28/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Basel · R163:6 6:3 7:6
- 26/10/26WQuentin Halys#46ATP Basel · R326:4 6:7 7:6
- 07/10/26LDaniel Altmaier#63ATP Shanghai · R1286:1 6:7 4:6
- 01/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#80ATP Tokyo · R323:6 1:6
- 18/10/25LUgo Humbert#38ATP Stockholm · SF6:4 2:2
- 17/10/25WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP Stockholm · QF6:7 6:3 6:4
- 16/10/25WMarton Fucsovics#144ATP Stockholm · R166:4 6:4
- 09/10/25LValentin Vacherot#27ATP Shanghai · QF6:2 6:7 4:6
- 07/10/25WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#145ATP Shanghai · R166:4 6:7 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Paul | H. Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 28–1565% | 2–340% |
| Clay | 11–473% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 6–275% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.