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Challenger TaipeiChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Poljicak vs Shimabukuro 0:2: result and our tips

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Mili PoljicakATP #276Elo 1659hard 1547
0:2finalrebuilt4:6 6:7(5)
Sho ShimabukuroATP #118Elo 1804hard 1762

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: ShimabukuroWon75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Poljicak lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost43%

Where the number comes from: market alone 46% → with the players' profiles 43%

Shimabukuro: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mili Poljicak24%
Sho Shimabukuro77%

Elo: M. Poljicak 23% · S. Shimabukuro 78%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Poljicak13%
2:1 M. Poljicak10%
2:1 S. Shimabukuro22%
2:0 S. Shimabukuro55%

First set

Mili Poljicak30%
Sho Shimabukuro71%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.555%45%54%
21.548%52%49%
22.542%58%42%
23.536%64%37%
24.533%67%35%

Sample: 3,630 matches

Games handicap

S. Shimabukuro −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Mili PoljicakSho Shimabukuro
—Aces—
—Double faults—
—First serves in—
—First-serve points won—
—Second-serve points won—
0/0Break points converted0/0
0/0Service games held0/0
—Service points won—
—Return points won—
0Total points won0

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. PoljicakTourS. Shimabukuro
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won38%38%37%
Service games held77%76%78%
Breaks of serve23%24%24%
Aces per service game0.520.53
Double faults per game0.200.25
Sets with a tie-break12%17%
Tie-breaks won8/1116/28
Wins in straight sets59%70%
Matches in the sample4069

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mili Poljicak

Sho Shimabukuro

Elo over the last year

Mili PoljicakSho Shimabukuro

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. PoljicakS. Shimabukuro
Hard court2–433%29–2554%
Clay20–1459%1–325%
Grass0–07–464%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Upcoming matches

See also