Poullain vs Kelm 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Kelm lost 4 of the last 5 matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 48% → with the players' profiles 46%
Kelm: 5 matches in a row over 21.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Poullain 83% · Y. Kelm 17%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 77% | 23% | 79% |
| 18.5 | 68% | 32% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 60% | 40% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 52% | 48% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 46% | 54% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 39% | 61% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 35% | 66% | 37% |
Sample: 3,738 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 20.5out · 17 games
- Games handicapcovered
Match stats
| Lucas Poullain | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 0 |
| 1 | Double faults | 1 |
| 73% | First serves in | 74% |
| 82% | First-serve points won | 61% |
| 57% | Second-serve points won | 41% |
| 3/11 | Break points converted | 0/2 |
| 9/9 | Service games held | 5/8 |
| 75% | Service points won | 56% |
| 44% | Return points won | 25% |
| 68 | Total points won | 50 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Poullain | Tour | Y. Kelm | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 60% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 72% |
| Breaks of serve | 31% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.22 | 0.27 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.12 | 0.25 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 7% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 4/10 | 1/1 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 0% | |
| Matches in the sample | 39 | 5 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lucas Poullain
- 01/11/26WTomas LanikChallenger Bratislava 2 · Q16:2 6:1
- 26/10/26LMatisse Bobichon#487Challenger Brest · Q23:6 6:1 6:7
- 25/10/26WTimeo TrufelliChallenger Brest · Q16:3 6:1
- 12/10/26LTom Paris#764Challenger Roanne · Q26:7 3:6
- 11/10/26WGijs Brouwer#832Challenger Roanne · Q16:1 6:2
- 02/10/26LJoel Schwaerzler#172Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · QF4:6 1:6
- 30/09/26WRemy Bertola#222Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R163:6 7:5 6:3
- 29/09/26WMark Lajal#167Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R327:6 5:7 6:3
- 16/09/26LClement Chidekh#131Challenger Rennes · R163:6 4:6
- 14/09/26WDavid Jorda Sanchis#199Challenger Rennes · R327:5 6:4
Yannik Kelm
- 01/11/26WOleg Prihodko#446Challenger Bratislava 2 · Q11:6 6:3 7:6
- 25/10/26LMatisse Bobichon#487Challenger Brest · Q16:3 3:6 5:7
- 26/04/26LGiuseppe La Vela#536Challenger Shymkent 2 · Q13:6 7:5 2:6
- 19/04/26LErgi Kirkin#572Challenger Shymkent · Q14:6 5:7
- 01/02/26LAlec Deckers#573Challenger Koblenz · Q14:6 6:1 2:6
- 19/05/24LYurii Dzhavakian#750Challenger Augsburg · Q14:6 1:6
- 13/04/24LFrancesco Passaro#153ATP Munich · Q13:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Poullain | Y. Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 22–1167% | 1–233% |
| Clay | 3–350% | 0–20% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Lucas Poullain
- 01/11/26WTomas LanikChallenger Bratislava 2 · Q16:2 6:1
Yannik Kelm
- 01/11/26WOleg Prihodko#446Challenger Bratislava 2 · Q11:6 6:3 7:6
Upcoming matches
- Matej Dodig vs Michal Krajci, · Challenger Bratislava 2
- Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg vs Zsombor Piros, · Challenger Bratislava 2
- Lukas Pokorny vs Toby Samuel, · Challenger Bratislava 2
- Lucio Ratti vs Carlos Maria Zarate, · Challenger Villa Maria
- Charles Broom vs Alexandre Muller, · Challenger Taipei
- Jake Delaney vs Omar Jasika, · Challenger Taipei