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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Ribero vs Bruna 1:2: result and our tips

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Franco RiberoATP #683Elo 1473clay 1479
1:2final6:3 2:6 2:6
Nicolas BrunaATP #997Elo 1258clay 1281

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ribero: 10 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Lost56%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Ribero: 9 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost44%

Where the number comes from: market alone 42% → with the players' profiles 44%

Ribero: 9 matches in a row under 20.5 games; Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Ribero 15 of 20, Bruna 3 of 6 (tour average 49%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Franco Ribero58%
Nicolas Bruna42%

Elo: F. Ribero 76% · N. Bruna 24%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Ribero38%
2:1 F. Ribero21%
2:1 N. Bruna18%
2:0 N. Bruna24%

First set

Franco Ribero57%
Nicolas Bruna43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%68%
19.563%37%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.550%50%46%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,927 matches

Games handicap

F. Ribero −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes27%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Franco RiberoNicolas Bruna
2Aces8
2Double faults1
66%First serves in64%
67%First-serve points won74%
38%Second-serve points won47%
2/5Break points converted4/12
8/12Service games held11/13
57%Service points won64%
36%Return points won43%
79Total points won90

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. RiberoTourN. Bruna
Service points won60%62%60%
Return points won40%38%37%
Service games held73%76%74%
Breaks of serve27%24%21%
Aces per service game0.300.39
Double faults per game0.200.32
Sets with a tie-break14%7%
Tie-breaks won9/150/1
Wins in straight sets78%100%
Matches in the sample466

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Franco Ribero

  • 01/11/26WMateo CarballoChallenger Villa Maria · Q16:4 6:2
  • 20/10/26LCarlos Maria Zarate#341Challenger Cali · R321:6 3:6
  • 19/10/26WAlex Hernandez#469Challenger Cali · Q26:2 6:2
  • 18/10/26WJesse Flores#810Challenger Cali · Q16:2 6:4
  • 11/10/26LMaximo Zeitune#516Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q13:6 4:6
  • 04/10/26LLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez#517Challenger Antofagasta · Q13:6 2:6
  • 31/08/26LOleksandr Ovcharenko#626Challenger Plovdiv 3 · Q24:6 2:6
  • 30/08/26WDanial SpasovChallenger Plovdiv 3 · Q16:1 6:2
  • 16/08/26LGerard Campana Lee#445Challenger Sion · Q13:6 3:6
  • 09/08/26LNikita Mashtakov#452Challenger Todi · Q16:7 4:6

Nicolas Bruna

Elo over the last year

Franco RiberoNicolas Bruna

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. RiberoN. Bruna
Hard court0–20%0–10%
Clay23–2152%1–420%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Franco Ribero

Nicolas Bruna

Upcoming matches

See also