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WTA 125 CuritibaSemifinalclaybest of three sets

Riera vs Grabher 0:2: result and our tips

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Julia RieraWTA #137Elo 1669clay 1695
0:2final3:6 3:6
Julia GrabherWTA #112Elo 1759clay 1782

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Grabher: 12 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Riera 14 of 20, Grabher 16 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Riera 10 of 20, Grabher 10 of 20 (tour average 33%); Grabher: 3 matches in a row over 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Julia Riera46%
Julia Grabher54%

Elo: J. Riera 38% · J. Grabher 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Riera28%
2:1 J. Riera19%
2:1 J. Grabher21%
2:0 J. Grabher33%

First set

Julia Riera49%
Julia Grabher51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.566%34%59%
19.559%42%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.549%52%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,438 matches

Games handicap

J. Grabher −0.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Julia RieraJulia Grabher
1Aces1
3Double faults4
52%First serves in70%
56%First-serve points won66%
39%Second-serve points won47%
2/4Break points converted5/9
4/9Service games held7/9
48%Service points won60%
40%Return points won52%
48Total points won63

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. RieraTourJ. Grabher
Service points won55%56%56%
Return points won46%44%43%
Service games held60%63%64%
Breaks of serve40%37%35%
Aces per service game0.180.16
Double faults per game0.390.47
Sets with a tie-break12%14%
Tie-breaks won5/107/15
Wins in straight sets29%56%
Matches in the sample3348

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Julia Riera

Julia Grabher

Elo over the last year

Julia RieraJulia Grabher

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. RieraJ. Grabher
Hard court4–640%5–1033%
Clay12–957%20–1263%
Grass1–150%0–10%

Head to head

J. Riera 0–1 J. Grabher

  • 26/05/23Winner: J. Grabher1:6 6:3 6:7

Road through the tournament

Julia Riera

Julia Grabher

See also