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Challenger MatsuyamaChallenger 75Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Sakamoto vs Harris: prediction and tips

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Rei SakamotoATP #122Elo 1921hard 1905
-:-
Billy HarrisATP #227Elo 1707hard 1682

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Sakamoto69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Sakamoto: 5 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Sakamoto75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Sakamoto won 8 of the last 10 matches; Sakamoto: 5 wins in a row

  • Total Games: Over 20.558%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 54% → with the players' profiles 58%

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Sakamoto 11 of 20, Harris 16 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: Yes37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 31% → with the players' profiles 37%

A tie-break in recent matches: Sakamoto 7 of 20, Harris 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Rei Sakamoto75%
Billy Harris25%

Elo: R. Sakamoto 78% · B. Harris 22%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Sakamoto53%
2:1 R. Sakamoto22%
2:1 B. Harris11%
2:0 B. Harris14%

First set

Rei Sakamoto69%
Billy Harris31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%71%
19.567%33%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.551%49%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.539%61%37%
24.535%65%35%

Sample: 3,978 matches

Games handicap

R. Sakamoto −4.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. SakamotoTourB. Harris
Service points won66%62%62%
Return points won37%38%37%
Service games held85%76%78%
Breaks of serve22%24%21%
Aces per service game0.690.45
Double faults per game0.180.20
Sets with a tie-break22%24%
Tie-breaks won19/4113/35
Wins in straight sets68%56%
Matches in the sample7760

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Rei Sakamoto

Billy Harris

Elo over the last year

Rei SakamotoBilly Harris

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. SakamotoB. Harris
Hard court39–1967%17–2343%
Clay9–660%1–811%
Grass2–250%7–464%

Head to head

R. Sakamoto 0–1 B. Harris

  • 30/10/26Winner: B. Harris0:3

Road through the tournament

Rei Sakamoto

Billy Harris

Upcoming matches

See also