Shimizu vs Holmgren: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 64%
Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Shimizu 12 of 20, Holmgren 14 of 20 (tour average 54%)
Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 38%
Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Shimizu 8 of 20, Holmgren 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: Y. Shimizu 52% · A. Holmgren 48%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 72% | 28% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 64% | 36% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 51% | 49% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 6,062 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| Y. Shimizu | Tour | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.60 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.22 | 0.31 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/24 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 52 | 60 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Yuta Shimizu
- 03/11/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#129Challenger Taipei · R327:5 6:4
- 02/11/26WEvan Zhu#467Challenger Taipei · Q26:1 6:3
- 01/11/26WDimitris Sakellaridis#541Challenger Taipei · Q16:2 6:2
- 28/10/26LYu Hsiou Hsu#304Challenger Ningbo · R165:7 6:3 4:6
- 26/10/26WMili Poljicak#276Challenger Ningbo · R326:7 6:3 6:4
- 18/10/26LMax Purcell#618Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q13:6 1:6
- 01/10/26LBernard Tomic#181Challenger Jingshan · R167:5 2:6 6:7
- 29/09/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#129Challenger Jingshan · R327:6 6:2
- 15/09/26LPhilip Sekulic#343Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R322:6 6:2 5:7
- 12/09/26LArthur Weber#419Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · SF4:6 4:6
August Holmgren
- 02/11/26WDaniel Michalski#305Challenger Taipei · R326:3 6:4
- 27/10/26LJay Friend#252Challenger Seoul · R323:6 3:6
- 13/10/26LLuca Nardi#239Challenger Olbia · R326:4 4:6 4:6
- 06/10/26LPedro Martinez#124Challenger Villena · R326:2 6:7 5:7
- 02/10/26LHenrique Rocha#99Challenger Porto 2 · QF3:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WAndrea Guerrieri#166Challenger Porto 2 · R167:5 6:1
- 28/09/26WBenjamin Bonzi#95Challenger Porto 2 · R326:3 6:4
- 07/09/26LVadym Ursu#414Challenger Istanbul 3 · R324:6 5:7
- 01/09/26LFelix Balshaw#180Challenger Manacor · R326:7 5:7
- 24/08/26LAndrea Guerrieri#166ATP US Open · Q13:6 7:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| Y. Shimizu | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–2353% | 19–2246% |
| Clay | 2–167% | 6–367% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 5–645% |
Head to head
Y. Shimizu 0–2 A. Holmgren
- 24/04/26Winner: A. Holmgren6:7 4:6
- 18/07/25Winner: A. Holmgren4:6 6:4 3:6
Road through the tournament
Yuta Shimizu
- 01/11/26WDimitris Sakellaridis#541Challenger Taipei · Q16:2 6:2
- 02/11/26WEvan Zhu#467Challenger Taipei · Q26:1 6:3
- 03/11/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#129Challenger Taipei · R327:5 6:4
August Holmgren
- 02/11/26WDaniel Michalski#305Challenger Taipei · R326:3 6:4