Primera LPFMatchday 11

Banfield 1-1 Rosario Central: prediction, tips and result

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Banfield
1-22-31-31-12-2
1-1Full time(half time 1-0)
Rosario Central
1-01-01-11-22-2
Stadium:
Florencio Sola, Buenos Aires
Referee:
Leandro Rey Hilfer

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won67%

3.2 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 5.6 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Rosario Central: Over 3.5Lost60%

    Rosario Central: 4.6 shots on target a match, Banfield's opponents had 5.3 on average, league average 3.4; our numbers for Rosario Central: 4.2 shots on target against a league average of 3.4

  • Offsides – Banfield: Over 1.5Lost60%

    Banfield: over 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Rosario Central's opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 6 of 10 (52% of league matches)

  • Fouls – Rosario Central: Under 11.5Lost56%

    Rosario Central: 11.3 fouls a match, Banfield's opponents committed 10.2 on average, league average 11.8

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost34%

under 3.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 10 (23% of league matches); our numbers: 4.7 card points against a league average of 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloBanfield154622%21%Draw28%28%Rosario Central176150%51%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%49%O2.542%43%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Rosario Central2:1BanfieldL
  2. Rosario Central1:1BanfieldD
  3. Banfield2:0Rosario CentralW
  4. Rosario Central0:1BanfieldW
  5. Banfield1:2Rosario CentralL
Banfield's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.0league 8.7over 8.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.0 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.8under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 4
RefereeL. Rey Hilfer−0.2 yellow cards vs average23 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%U2.51:2coverageleague 73% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 1.5total 2.4Attack/defence1.1 : 1.3total 2.4
Banfield : Rosario Central
Most likely scores
Market1-113%0-113%0-010%0-210%1-0—1-29%Attack/defence1-113%0-112%0-010%0-28%1-010%1-29%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-113%0-112%0-00-010%0-010%0-20-210%0-28%1-01-0—1-010%1-21-29%1-29%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals79%78%78%
X2 – away team avoid defeat78%70%70%
12 – no draw72%72%72%
Over 1.5 goals69%69%69%
Under 2.5 goals58%57%57%
Both teams to score: no54%51%51%
2 – Rosario Central win50%41% · Elo 51%41%· Elo 51%
1X – home team avoid defeat50%59%59%
Both teams to score: yes46%49%49%
Over 2.5 goals42%43%43%
Under 1.5 goals31%31%31%
X – draw28%28% · Elo 28%28%· Elo 28%
1 – Banfield win22%31% · Elo 21%31%· Elo 21%
Over 3.5 goals21%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Banfield attack vs Rosario Central defenceattack1472defence1575−103 pts to the attack
Rosario Central attack vs Banfield defenceattack1551defence1393+158 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 8.3 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.571%62%
7.559%51%
8.545%40%
9.533%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Banfieldwe expect 4.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Rosario Centralwe expect 4.2, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 60%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 24.0 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.565%56%
22.558%51%
23.551%46%
24.544%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Banfieldwe expect 11.4, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Rosario Centralwe expect 11.2, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Referee: 25.7 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)+2.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.566%65%
3.544%41%
4.526%26%
5.514%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Banfieldwe expect 2.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Rosario Centralwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 40%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Banfield matches average only 3.2 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Rosario Central matches average 11.4 corners (league 8.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Banfield: 16 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Rosario Central: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Banfield

Rosario Central

League position

Clausura, Group B

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Rosario Central1264217:922
11Banfield1234514:1813
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Banfield vs Rosario Central?

Banfield 1-1 Rosario Central (half time 1-0).

Did the Banfield vs Rosario Central tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also