Primera LPFMatchday 16
Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia: prediction, tips and stats
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1.8:0.8Pre-match
- Referee:
- Sebastian Zunino
Our tips
Tip in 18h 15mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS44%47%O2.552%48%|exp. goals 1.8 : 0.8H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Defensa y Justicia0:4Boca JuniorsW
- Defensa y Justicia2:1Boca JuniorsL
- Boca Juniors4:0Defensa y JusticiaW
- Defensa y Justicia2:2Boca JuniorsD
- Boca Juniors0:0Defensa y JusticiaD
Boca Juniors's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.4league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.8league 4.8over 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 27%.Referee
S. Zunino−0.1 yellow cards vs average29 matchesPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 0.7total 2.7Attack/defence1.8 : 0.8total 2.6
Boca Juniors : Defensa y JusticiaMost likely scores
Market2-014%1-012%1-110%2-19%3-09%0-0—Attack/defence2-012%1-013%1-111%2-110%3-07%0-08%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-014%2-012%1-01-012%1-013%1-11-110%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%3-03-09%3-07%0-00-0—0-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 89%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%73% | 73% |
| 1 – Boca Juniors win | 69%60% · Elo 59% | 60%· Elo 59% |
| Both teams to score: no | 56%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 32%40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%27% | 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 20%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Defensa y Justicia win | 12%16% · Elo 16% | 16%· Elo 16% |
Attack vs defence
Boca Juniors attack vs Defensa y Justicia defenceattack1612defence1458+154 pts to the attack
Defensa y Justicia attack vs Boca Juniors defenceattack1532defence1647−115 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%53%
8.540%40%
9.528%31%
10.519%22%
Each team on its own
Boca Juniorswe expect 4.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Defensa y Justiciawe expect 3.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 22.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.540%54%
22.533%49%
23.527%43%
24.522%35%
Each team on its own
Boca Juniorswe expect 9.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Defensa y Justiciawe expect 11.4, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 47%
Referee: 21.9 fouls per match on average (27 matches in our data)−1.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%65%
3.538%39%
4.521%24%
5.510%14%
Each team on its own
Boca Juniorswe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Defensa y Justiciawe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Boca Juniors14 matches unbeatenat home: 16Went on 81%League 72%Model 89%Record 33
- Boca Juniors5 wins in a row at homeoverall: 3Went on 55%League 42%Model 69%Record 13
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Boca Juniors: unbeaten in 14 league matches
- Defensa y Justicia: 20 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Boca Juniors: 24 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Boca Juniors: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Defensa y Justicia: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23:14 | 30 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | 28 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
Boca Juniors are the favourites. Chances: Boca Juniors win 69%, draw 20%, Defensa y Justicia win 12%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Boca Juniors 2.0, Defensa y Justicia 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
The chance that both teams score is 44%.
When is Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 7 November 2026, 20:30 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
The referee is Sebastian Zunino. In 29 matches in our data they showed 4.8 yellow cards a match on average.