Primera LPFMatchday 14
Independiente vs Boca Juniors: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%47%O2.542%40%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Boca Juniors1:1IndependienteD
- Boca Juniors0:1IndependienteW
- Boca Juniors0:0IndependienteD
- Independiente0:2Boca JuniorsL
- Boca Juniors2:2IndependienteD
Independiente's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 8.8over 8.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 1.5total 2.4Attack/defence1.1 : 1.2total 2.3
Independiente : Boca JuniorsMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-113%1-0—0-010%0-210%1-29%2-1—Attack/defence1-114%0-112%1-011%0-011%0-2—1-28%2-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%0-10-113%0-112%1-01-0—1-011%0-00-010%0-011%0-20-210%0-2—1-21-29%1-28%2-12-1—2-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 79%80% | 80% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 78%67% | 67% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69%66% | 66% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58%60% | 60% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%53% | 53% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 51%63% | 63% |
| 2 – Boca Juniors win | 49%37% · Elo 39% | 37%· Elo 39% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42%40% | 40% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 29%29% · Elo 31% | 29%· Elo 31% |
| 1 – Independiente win | 22%33% · Elo 30% | 33%· Elo 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Independiente attack vs Boca Juniors defenceattack1524defence1631−107 pts to the attack
Boca Juniors attack vs Independiente defenceattack1623defence1528+95 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 7.7 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.564%63%
7.550%52%
8.537%40%
9.525%30%
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Boca Juniorswe expect 3.6, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.548%56%
22.541%50%
23.534%45%
24.528%37%
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 9.6, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Boca Juniorswe expect 11.8, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%65%
3.540%41%
4.522%26%
5.511%14%
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Boca Juniorswe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Independiente matches average 11.2 corners (league 8.8) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Boca Juniors: unbeaten in 11 matches
- Independiente: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Boca Juniors: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 19:13 | 21 |
| 7 | Independiente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11:12 | 18 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
Boca Juniors are the favourites. Chances: Independiente win 22%, draw 29%, Boca Juniors win 49%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Independiente 0.9, Boca Juniors 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The chance that both teams score is 47%.
When is Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 25 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).