Primera LPFMatchday 13
Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 17hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%52%O2.539%47%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2
H2Hlast 3 meetings
- Instituto2:0Defensa y JusticiaL
- Instituto4:1Defensa y JusticiaL
- Defensa y Justicia1:0InstitutoW
Defensa y Justicia's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses2.7 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 8.8over 8.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.0league 4.8over 4.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 5.0 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.1total 2.2Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.5
Defensa y Justicia : InstitutoMost likely scores
Market1-114%0-011%0-111%1-011%2-1—1-28%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-08%0-19%1-011%2-19%1-2—2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-00-011%0-08%0-10-111%0-19%1-01-011%1-011%2-12-1—2-19%1-21-28%1-2—2-02-0—2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 81%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 69%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 66%58% | 58% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%69% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39%47% | 47% |
| 2 – Instituto win | 35%31% · Elo 30% | 31%· Elo 30% |
| 1 – Defensa y Justicia win | 34%42% · Elo 39% | 42%· Elo 39% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 31%27% · Elo 31% | 27%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Defensa y Justicia attack vs Instituto defenceattack1536defence1516+20 pts to the attack
Instituto attack vs Defensa y Justicia defenceattack1533defence1454+79 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.567%63%
7.554%52%
8.540%40%
9.529%30%
Each team on its own
Defensa y Justiciawe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Institutowe expect 4.0, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 22.0 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.551%56%
22.544%50%
23.537%45%
24.531%37%
Each team on its own
Defensa y Justiciawe expect 10.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Institutowe expect 11.2, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%65%
3.539%41%
4.522%26%
5.511%14%
Each team on its own
Defensa y Justiciawe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Institutowe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Defensa y Justicia5 wins in a row at homeoverall: 2Went on 55%League 43%Model 34%Record 13
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Defensa y Justicia: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Instituto: 23 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Defensa y Justicia: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Instituto: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18:11 | 24 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Defensa y Justicia win 34%, draw 31%, Instituto win 35%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Defensa y Justicia 1.1, Instituto 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto?
The chance that both teams score is 47%.
When is Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 16 October 2026, 23:00 (UK time).