Primera LPFMatchday 12

Gimnasia L.P. 1-1 Atl. Tucuman: prediction, tips and result

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Gimnasia L.P.
2-12-11-12-21-1
1-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Atl. Tucuman
2-30-11-22-10-0
Stadium:
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata
Referee:
Pablo Dovalo

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Under 2.5Won61%

under 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

Other tips

  • Yellow Cards: Under 4.5Lost57%

    our numbers: 4.3 yellow cards against a league average of 4.8

  • Offsides – Atl. Tucuman: Over 1.5Won69%

    Atl. Tucuman: over 1.5 offsides in 10 of their last 10 league matches, Gimnasia L.P.'s opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 8 of 10 (44% of league matches); our numbers for Atl. Tucuman: 2.5 offsides against a league average of 1.7

  • Fouls – Gimnasia L.P.: Under 10.5Won73%

    our numbers for Gimnasia L.P.: 8.7 fouls against a league average of 10.9; Gimnasia L.P.: 9.5 fouls a match, Atl. Tucuman's opponents committed 7.3 on average, league average 10.9

  • Shots on Target – Gimnasia L.P.: Under 4.5Lost57%

    Gimnasia L.P.: 4.0 shots on target a match, Atl. Tucuman's opponents had 3.6 on average, league average 4.4

For the brave
Total Goals: Under 1.5Lost33%

under 1.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloGimnasia L.P.162449%48%Draw28%29%Atl. Tucuman156623%23%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%49%O2.541%44%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Atl. Tucuman1:0Gimnasia L.P.L
  2. Gimnasia L.P.1:0Atl. TucumanW
  3. Atl. Tucuman0:1Gimnasia L.P.W
  4. Gimnasia L.P.1:0Atl. TucumanW
  5. Atl. Tucuman2:0Gimnasia L.P.L
Gimnasia L.P.'s record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses1.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.8league 8.7over 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.won · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.8under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.lost · ended 6
RefereeP. Dovalo−0.6 yellow cards vs average21 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)69%U2.52:1coverageleague 74% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 0.9total 2.3Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.4
Gimnasia L.P. : Atl. Tucuman
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-013%0-011%2-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-09%2-09%2-19%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-013%1-012%0-00-011%0-09%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals80%77%77%
1X – home team avoid defeat77%73%73%
12 – no draw72%73%73%
Over 1.5 goals68%70%70%
Our tip: Under 2.5 goals59%56%56%
Both teams to score: no55%51%51%
X2 – away team avoid defeat51%54%54%
1 – Gimnasia L.P. win49%46% · Elo 48%46%· Elo 48%
Both teams to score: yes45%49%49%
Over 2.5 goals41%44%44%
Under 1.5 goals32%30%30%
X – draw28%27% · Elo 29%27%· Elo 29%
2 – Atl. Tucuman win23%27% · Elo 23%27%· Elo 23%
Over 3.5 goals20%23%23%
Attack vs defence
Gimnasia L.P. attack vs Atl. Tucuman defenceattack1512defence1471+41 pts to the attack
Atl. Tucuman attack vs Gimnasia L.P. defenceattack1480defence1463+17 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 7.7 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.564%62%
7.551%51%
8.537%39%
9.526%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 4.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Atl. Tucumanwe expect 3.4, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 43%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 20.2 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.539%55%
22.532%50%
23.526%45%
24.521%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 8.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 27%
Atl. Tucumanwe expect 11.6, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 48%
Referee: 22.2 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)−0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 4.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.576%65%
3.557%41%
4.538%26%
5.523%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Atl. Tucumanwe expect 2.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 70%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Atl. Tucuman matches average only 3.7 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Atl. Tucuman score a lot late on: 6 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Gimnasia L.P.: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Atl. Tucuman: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Gimnasia L.P.

Atl. Tucuman

League position

Clausura, Group B

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Gimnasia L.P.1254317:1719
10Atl. Tucuman1235410:1014
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Gimnasia L.P. vs Atl. Tucuman?

Gimnasia L.P. 1-1 Atl. Tucuman (half time 0-0).

Did the Gimnasia L.P. vs Atl. Tucuman tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Under 2.5. The tip won.

See also