Primera LPFMatchday 14
Instituto vs Dep. Riestra: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 12d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS35%41%O2.533%35%|exp. goals 1.3 : 0.8
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Dep. Riestra0:1InstitutoW
- Dep. Riestra1:0InstitutoL
- Instituto3:0Dep. RiestraW
- Instituto2:1Dep. RiestraW
Instituto's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.5league 8.8under 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.5 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.9league 4.8over 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.9 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 0.6total 2.0Attack/defence1.3 : 0.8total 2.1
Instituto : Dep. RiestraMost likely scores
Market1-018%0-014%1-112%2-013%0-1—2-18%Attack/defence1-015%0-013%1-113%2-010%0-110%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-018%1-015%0-00-014%0-013%1-11-112%1-113%2-02-013%2-010%0-10-1—0-110%2-12-18%2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 85%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%70% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 67%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: no | 65%59% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61%62% | 62% |
| 1 – Instituto win | 57%47% · Elo 51% | 47%· Elo 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%53% | 53% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 39%38% | 38% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 35%41% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33%35% | 35% |
| X – draw | 28%30% · Elo 28% | 30%· Elo 28% |
| 2 – Dep. Riestra win | 16%24% · Elo 21% | 24%· Elo 21% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Instituto attack vs Dep. Riestra defenceattack1533defence1560−27 pts to the attack
Dep. Riestra attack vs Instituto defenceattack1414defence1516−102 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.562%63%
7.548%52%
8.535%40%
9.524%30%
Each team on its own
Institutowe expect 4.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 2.8, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 31%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 22.0 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.552%56%
22.545%50%
23.538%45%
24.532%37%
Each team on its own
Institutowe expect 10.1, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 12.0, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.556%65%
3.534%41%
4.518%26%
5.58%14%
Each team on its own
Institutowe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Dep. Riestra: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Dep. Riestra score only 0.5 goals per game
- Dep. Riestra matches average only 6.4 corners (league 8.8) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Dep. Riestra: no win in 8 matches
- Instituto: 23 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Dep. Riestra: only 8 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Instituto: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Dep. Riestra: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 26 |
| 12 | Dep. Riestra | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9:12 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Instituto vs Dep. Riestra?
Instituto are the favourites. Chances: Instituto win 57%, draw 28%, Dep. Riestra win 16%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Instituto vs Dep. Riestra?
Expected goals: 2.0 (Instituto 1.4, Dep. Riestra 0.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 33%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Instituto vs Dep. Riestra?
The chance that both teams score is 35%.
When is Instituto vs Dep. Riestra?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 27 October 2026, 00:15 (UK time).