BundesligaMatchday 9
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%53%O2.558%56%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sturm Graz2:1Grazer AKW
- Grazer AK0:3Sturm GrazW
- Grazer AK1:2Sturm GrazW
- Sturm Graz5:2Grazer AKW
- Sturm Graz1:0Grazer AKW
Sturm Graz's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.6over 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.9over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.1total 3.0Attack/defence2.0 : 1.0total 2.9
Sturm Graz : Grazer AKMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-09%1-09%2-110%3-0—3-16%Attack/defence1-111%2-010%1-010%2-110%3-07%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-02-09%2-010%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-0—3-07%3-13-16%3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%79% | 79% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%56% | 56% |
| 1 – Sturm Graz win | 57%60% · Elo 64% | 60%· Elo 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%53% | 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%40% | 40% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 23%22% · Elo 22% | 22%· Elo 22% |
| 2 – Grazer AK win | 20%18% · Elo 14% | 18%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Sturm Graz attack vs Grazer AK defenceattack1600defence1470+130 pts to the attack
Grazer AK attack vs Sturm Graz defenceattack1419defence1565−146 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%53%
8.546%36%
9.534%23%
10.523%19%
Each team on its own
Sturm Grazwe expect 4.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Grazer AKwe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 19.5 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.548%54%
20.541%50%
21.534%43%
22.527%37%
Each team on its own
Sturm Grazwe expect 9.4, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 46%
Grazer AKwe expect 10.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%60%
3.538%46%
4.521%25%
5.510%17%
Each team on its own
Sturm Grazwe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Grazer AKwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Sturm Graz12 matches unbeaten at homeoverall: 1Went on 79%League 71%Model 80%Record 37
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sturm Graz matches average 12.1 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Sturm Graz: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Grazer AK: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:16 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz are the favourites. Chances: Sturm Graz win 57%, draw 23%, Grazer AK win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Sturm Graz 1.9, Grazer AK 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 16:00 (UK time).