Pro LeagueMatchday 9
St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.559%58%|exp. goals 2.1 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Cercle Brugge1:1St. GilloiseD
- St. Gilloise2:0Cercle BruggeW
- Cercle Brugge0:0St. GilloiseD
- St. Gilloise1:3Cercle BruggeL
- Cercle Brugge1:2St. GilloiseW
St. Gilloise's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.2under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.3 : 0.7total 3.0Attack/defence2.1 : 0.9total 3.0
St. Gilloise : Cercle BruggeMost likely scores
Model2-013%1-011%3-010%2-19%1-18%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-010%3-08%2-110%1-110%3-17%
ModelAttack/defence2-02-013%2-011%1-01-011%1-010%3-03-010%3-08%2-12-19%2-110%1-11-18%1-110%3-13-1—3-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 91%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%80% | 80% |
| 1 – St. Gilloise win | 74%65% · Elo 79% | 65%· Elo 79% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64%65% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%58% | 58% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36%35% | 35% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 27%35% | 35% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%20% | 20% |
| X – draw | 18%21% · Elo 13% | 21%· Elo 13% |
| 2 – Cercle Brugge win | 9%15% · Elo 8% | 15%· Elo 8% |
Attack vs defence
St. Gilloise attack vs Cercle Brugge defenceattack1620defence1455+165 pts to the attack
Cercle Brugge attack vs St. Gilloise defenceattack1531defence1715−184 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 9.4 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.570%61%
8.558%50%
9.546%40%
10.534%28%
Each team on its own
St. Gilloisewe expect 6.8, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 78%
Cercle Bruggewe expect 3.1, league average 4.0 · chance of over 3.5: 38%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 21.3 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.561%63%
20.553%55%
21.546%47%
22.539%39%
Each team on its own
St. Gilloisewe expect 9.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Cercle Bruggewe expect 11.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.553%62%
3.531%43%
4.516%28%
5.57%17%
Each team on its own
St. Gilloisewe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Cercle Bruggewe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- St. Gilloise31 matches unbeaten at homeoverall: 10Went on 90%League 67%Model 91%Record 31
- Cercle Brugge10 matches without a winaway: 5Went on 71%League 67%Model 91%Record 28
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Cercle Brugge concede 2.3 goals per game
- St. Gilloise score 2.7 goals per game
- Cercle Brugge matches average only 2.7 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- St. Gilloise concede only 0.5 goals per game
- St. Gilloise: unbeaten in 10 matches
- Cercle Brugge: no win in 10 matches
- St. Gilloise: 14 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Cercle Brugge: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22:4 | 20 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9:16 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
St. Gilloise are the favourites. Chances: St. Gilloise win 74%, draw 18%, Cercle Brugge win 9%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Expected goals: 3.0 (St. Gilloise 2.3, Cercle Brugge 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 2-0.
When is St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
The Pro League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 18:15 (UK time).