Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 21
Chapecoense-SC vs Vasco: prediction, tips and stats
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1.4:1.6Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS53%61%O2.559%58%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.6H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Vasco1:1Chapecoense-SCD
- Vasco1:1Chapecoense-SCD
- Chapecoense-SC1:2VascoL
- Vasco3:1Chapecoense-SCL
- Chapecoense-SC1:1VascoD
Chapecoense-SC's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
10.5league 10.6under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.6 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 10.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.4league 4.6under 4.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.6 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.Referee
awaiting appointmentPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 2.2total 3.1Attack/defence1.4 : 1.6total 3.0
Chapecoense-SC : VascoMost likely scores
Market1-110%0-211%1-210%0-19%0-38%2-1—1-0—2-2—Attack/defence1-112%0-2—1-29%0-18%0-3—2-18%1-07%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%0-20-211%0-2—1-21-210%1-29%0-10-19%0-18%0-30-38%0-3—2-12-1—2-18%1-01-0—1-07%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 85%66% | 66% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%75% | 75% |
| 2 – Vasco win | 66%41% · Elo 44% | 41%· Elo 44% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%65% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%61% | 61% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%40% | 40% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%35% | 35% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 34%59% | 59% |
| X – draw | 19%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%20% | 20% |
| 1 – Chapecoense-SC win | 15%34% · Elo 28% | 34%· Elo 28% |
Attack vs defence
Chapecoense-SC attack vs Vasco defenceattack1402defence1468−66 pts to the attack
Vasco attack vs Chapecoense-SC defenceattack1531defence1344+187 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 10.2 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.567%57%
9.555%45%
10.544%35%
11.533%26%
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 4.8, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 35%
Vascowe expect 5.5, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 78%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 24.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.544%57%
24.537%48%
25.531%41%
26.525%36%
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 11.6, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Vascowe expect 11.0, league average 12.4 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%76%
2.545%54%
3.524%33%
4.511%20%
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Vascowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Chapecoense-SC concede 2.2 goals per game (last 10 league matches)
- Chapecoense-SC: 8 of the last 10 league matches over 2.5 goals
- Vasco score a lot late on: 10 of 25 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Chapecoense-SC: newly promoted
- Chapecoense-SC: 11 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Vasco: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vasco | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | 41 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
Vasco are the favourites. Chances: Chapecoense-SC win 15%, draw 19%, Vasco win 66%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
Expected goals: 3.1 (Chapecoense-SC 0.9, Vasco 2.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 0-2.
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 14 November 2026, 23:30 (UK time).