Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Chapecoense-SC vs Fluminense: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%56%O2.547%53%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Fluminense2:1Chapecoense-SCL
- Fluminense3:0Chapecoense-SCL
- Chapecoense-SC1:2FluminenseL
- Fluminense1:1Chapecoense-SCD
- Chapecoense-SC1:1FluminenseD
Chapecoense-SC's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.7under 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.6total 2.6Attack/defence1.2 : 1.6total 2.8
Chapecoense-SC : FluminenseMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-112%0-210%1-210%0-09%2-1—1-0—Attack/defence1-112%0-19%0-28%1-29%0-0—2-17%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%0-10-112%0-19%0-20-210%0-28%1-21-210%1-29%0-00-09%0-0—2-12-1—2-17%1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 78%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%69% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%77% | 77% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%47% | 47% |
| 2 – Fluminense win | 52%46% · Elo 50% | 46%· Elo 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%44% | 44% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 48%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%53% | 53% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%23% | 23% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 27% | 25%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%31% | 31% |
| 1 – Chapecoense-SC win | 22%29% · Elo 23% | 29%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Chapecoense-SC attack vs Fluminense defenceattack1416defence1574−158 pts to the attack
Fluminense attack vs Chapecoense-SC defenceattack1541defence1350+191 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 10.0 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.565%55%
9.553%43%
10.541%32%
11.531%26%
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 5.3, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 43%
Fluminensewe expect 5.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 71%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 24.2 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.553%59%
24.546%51%
25.539%45%
26.533%40%
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 13.3, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 55%
Fluminensewe expect 10.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 30%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%78%
2.543%55%
3.523%34%
4.510%20%
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Fluminensewe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Chapecoense-SC concede 2.2 goals per game
- Chapecoense-SC: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Fluminense score a lot late on: 13 of 31 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Chapecoense-SC: newly promoted
- Chapecoense-SC: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Fluminense: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:37 | 51 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30:61 | 18 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chapecoense-SC vs Fluminense?
Fluminense are the favourites. Chances: Chapecoense-SC win 22%, draw 26%, Fluminense win 52%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-SC vs Fluminense?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Chapecoense-SC 1.0, Fluminense 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-SC vs Fluminense?
The chance that both teams score is 50%.
When is Chapecoense-SC vs Fluminense?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 23:30 (UK time).