Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 27
Atletico-MG 3-1 Fluminense: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte
- Referee:
- Matheus Delgado Candancan
Our tips
Main tip
Cards: Under 4.5Won62%
referee Matheus Delgado Candancan averages 2.9 cards a match, league average 4.9; our numbers: 4.1 cards against a league average of 4.9
Other tips
- Total Goals: Under 2.5Lost57%
under 2.5 goals in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (49% of league matches)
For the brave
Cards: Under 3.5Won43%
referee Matheus Delgado Candancan averages 2.9 cards a match, league average 4.9; our numbers: 4.1 cards against a league average of 4.9
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%50%O2.543%45%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Fluminense1:0Atletico-MGL
- Fluminense3:0Atletico-MGL
- Atletico-MG3:2FluminenseW
- Atletico-MG2:0FluminenseW
- Fluminense1:0Atletico-MGL
Atletico-MG's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.2under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 7
Cardsleague cards4.1league 4.9under 4.5: 62%Expected cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.9 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.won · ended 3
RefereeM. Delgado Candancan−2.5 cards vs average9 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.0total 2.4Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Atletico-MG : FluminenseMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-012%0-010%2-09%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-09%2-08%2-19%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-011%0-00-010%0-09%2-02-09%2-08%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57%55% | 55% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 52%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 52%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Atletico-MG win | 47%44% · Elo 37% | 44%· Elo 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43%45% | 45% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 29% | 28%· Elo 29% |
| 2 – Fluminense win | 24%29% · Elo 34% | 29%· Elo 34% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Atletico-MG attack vs Fluminense defenceattack1498defence1568−70 pts to the attack
Fluminense attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1533defence1540−7 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Atletico-MG matches average only 3.4 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Fluminense: unbeaten in 9 matches
- Atletico-MG: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Atletico-MG: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Fluminense: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:37 | 51 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:35 | 47 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Atletico-MG 3-1 Fluminense (half time 0-0).
Did the Atletico-MG vs Fluminense tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards: Under 4.5. The tip won.