Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Chapecoense-SC 1-4 Athletico-PR: prediction, tips and result

·

Chapecoense-SC
1-32-11-21-10-4
1-4Full time(half time 0-3)
Athletico-PR
2-22-13-31-33-3
Stadium:
Arena Conda, Chapeco
Referee:
Wilton Pereira Sampaio

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won60%

under 5.5 card points in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (56% of league matches); 4.3 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 4.1 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesWon57%

    goals at both ends in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (57% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Athletico-PR: Over 3.5Won71%

    Athletico-PR: 6.4 shots on target a match, Chapecoense-SC's opponents had 5.6 on average, league average 3.9; over 3.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Chapecoense-SC's opponents had over 3.5 in 9 of 10 (52% of league matches)

  • Fouls – Athletico-PR: Under 11.5Lost64%

    Athletico-PR: under 11.5 fouls in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Chapecoense-SC's opponents committed under 11.5 in 9 of 10 (43% of league matches); our numbers for Athletico-PR: 10.4 fouls against a league average of 12.5

  • Offsides – Chapecoense-SC: Under 1.5Won68%

    Chapecoense-SC: under 1.5 offsides in 9 of their last 10 league matches, Athletico-PR's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 6 of 10 (54% of league matches); our numbers for Chapecoense-SC: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.5

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Won44%

under 4.5 card points in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (45% of league matches); 4.3 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 4.1 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloChapecoense-SC154524%28%Draw25%28%Athletico-PR173251%44%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%60%O2.556%56%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.5both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Athletico-PR2:0Chapecoense-SCL
  2. Chapecoense-SC1:1Athletico-PRD
  3. Athletico-PR2:2Chapecoense-SCD
  4. Athletico-PR1:1Chapecoense-SCD
  5. Chapecoense-SC1:1Athletico-PRD
Chapecoense-SC's record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.3under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 13
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.7over 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.lost · ended 3
RefereeW. Pereira Sampaio+0.9 yellow cards vs average15 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)68%O2.51:1coverageleague 61% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.8total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.5total 2.9
Chapecoense-SC : Athletico-PR
Most likely scores
Market1-112%1-210%0-19%2-16%0-28%1-0—2-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-28%0-17%2-18%0-2—1-08%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-210%1-28%0-10-19%0-17%2-12-16%2-18%0-20-28%0-2—1-01-0—1-08%2-22-2—2-26%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals80%79%79%
X2 – away team avoid defeat76%62%62%
12 – no draw75%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals67%66%66%
Both teams to score: yes57%60%60%
Over 2.5 goals56%56%56%
2 – Athletico-PR win51%37% · Elo 44%37%· Elo 44%
1X – home team avoid defeat49%63%63%
Under 2.5 goals44%44%44%
Both teams to score: no43%40%40%
Over 3.5 goals33%34%34%
X – draw25%25% · Elo 28%25%· Elo 28%
1 – Chapecoense-SC win24%38% · Elo 28%38%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals20%21%21%
Attack vs defence
Chapecoense-SC attack vs Athletico-PR defenceattack1417defence1464−47 pts to the attack
Athletico-PR attack vs Chapecoense-SC defenceattack1505defence1358+147 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.565%55%
9.553%43%
10.541%32%
11.530%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 5.2, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 42%
Athletico-PRwe expect 4.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 71%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 22.4 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
23.540%59%
24.534%51%
25.528%45%
26.523%40%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 11.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Athletico-PRwe expect 10.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 27%
Referee: 26.3 fouls per match on average (30 matches in our data)+0.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.573%78%
2.549%55%
3.527%34%
4.513%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Athletico-PRwe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Chapecoense-SC concede 2.2 goals per game
  • Chapecoense-SC: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Chapecoense-SC: newly promoted
  • Athletico-PR: newly promoted
  • Chapecoense-SC: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Athletico-PR: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Chapecoense-SC

Athletico-PR

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Athletico-PR30158749:3553
20Chapecoense-SC29391730:6118
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Chapecoense-SC vs Athletico-PR?

Chapecoense-SC 1-4 Athletico-PR (half time 0-3).

Did the Chapecoense-SC vs Athletico-PR tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also