Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 28
Athletico-PR 2-1 Bahia: prediction, tips and result
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- Stadium:
- Arena da Baixada, Curitiba (attendance: 27,259)
- Referee:
- Anderson Daronco
Our tips
Main tip
Corners: Over 9.5Lost60%
over 9.5 corners in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (57% of league matches)
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost13%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%58%O2.550%55%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bahia3:0Athletico-PRL
- Bahia1:1Athletico-PRD
- Athletico-PR1:3BahiaL
- Bahia1:1Athletico-PRD
- Athletico-PR2:0BahiaW
Athletico-PR's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.3over 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 9
Cardsleague cards4.6league 4.9under 4.5: 52%Expected cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.9 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.lost · ended 5
RefereeA. Daronco−0.3 cards vs average15 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.2total 2.7Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Athletico-PR : BahiaMost likely scores
Market1-113%2-19%1-09%0-08%1-2—2-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%0-0—1-27%2-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-09%1-09%0-00-08%0-0—1-21-2—1-27%2-02-07%2-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%67% | 67% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 58%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%42% | 42% |
| 1 – Athletico-PR win | 42%45% · Elo 45% | 45%· Elo 45% |
| 2 – Bahia win | 30%30% · Elo 27% | 30%· Elo 27% |
| X – draw | 28%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%33% | 33% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Athletico-PR attack vs Bahia defenceattack1501defence1497+4 pts to the attack
Bahia attack vs Athletico-PR defenceattack1549defence1468+81 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bahia matches average only 3.5 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Athletico-PR matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Bahia: 4 wins in a row
- Athletico-PR: 19 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Athletico-PR: newly promoted
- Athletico-PR: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Bahia: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49:35 | 53 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44:36 | 49 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Athletico-PR vs Bahia?
Athletico-PR 2-1 Bahia (half time 1-1).
Did the Athletico-PR vs Bahia tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Corners: Over 9.5. The tip lost.