Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-SC: prediction, tips and result

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Vitoria
0-21-21-02-21-3
4-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Chapecoense-SC
1-11-22-11-31-0
Stadium:
Estadio Manoel Barradas, Salvador
Referee:
Edina Alves Batista

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Vitoria (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won62%

Vitoria: under 2.5 card points in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Chapecoense-SC's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 7 of 10 (59% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Vitoria: Under 11.5Won57%

    Vitoria: under 11.5 fouls in 6 of their last 10 league matches, Chapecoense-SC's opponents committed under 11.5 in 8 of 10 (41% of league matches); our numbers for Vitoria: 11.0 fouls against a league average of 12.6

  • Offsides – Chapecoense-SC: Under 1.5Won71%

    our numbers for Chapecoense-SC: 1.1 offsides against a league average of 1.4; Chapecoense-SC: 0.8 offsides a match, Vitoria's opponents were caught offside 1.0 times on average, league average 1.4

For the brave
Cards – Vitoria (yellow=1, red=2): Under 1.5Lost36%

Vitoria: under 1.5 card points in 5 of their last 10 league matches, Chapecoense-SC's opponents collected under 1.5 card points in 4 of 10 (33% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloVitoria163364%52%Draw21%26%Chapecoense-SC154515%22%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%53%O2.553%52%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Chapecoense-SC1:1VitoriaD
  2. Chapecoense-SC0:1VitoriaW
  3. Vitoria1:0Chapecoense-SCW
  4. Chapecoense-SC2:1VitoriaL
  5. Vitoria1:2Chapecoense-SCL
Vitoria's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.3under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.7under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 24%.lost · ended 5
RefereeE. Alves Batista−0.5 yellow cards vs average6 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)74%11:1coverageleague 62% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 0.8total 2.8Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.8
Vitoria : Chapecoense-SC
Most likely scores
Market2-012%1-111%1-011%2-110%3-08%0-0—0-1—Attack/defence2-09%1-112%1-011%2-110%3-0—0-07%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-09%1-11-111%1-112%1-01-011%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-08%3-0—0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-16%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat85%77%77%
12 – no draw79%75%75%
Over 1.5 goals77%76%76%
Under 3.5 goals69%70%70%
1 – Vitoria win64%53% · Elo 52%53%· Elo 52%
Over 2.5 goals53%52%52%
Both teams to score: no51%47%47%
Both teams to score: yes49%53%53%
Under 2.5 goals47%48%48%
X2 – away team avoid defeat36%47%47%
Over 3.5 goals31%30%30%
Under 1.5 goals23%24%24%
X – draw21%25% · Elo 26%25%· Elo 26%
2 – Chapecoense-SC win15%23% · Elo 22%23%· Elo 22%
Attack vs defence
Vitoria attack vs Chapecoense-SC defenceattack1407defence1369+38 pts to the attack
Chapecoense-SC attack vs Vitoria defenceattack1425defence1455−30 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 9.1 in this match, 9.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.555%53%
9.542%42%
10.531%31%
11.522%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Vitoriawe expect 5.3, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 43%
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 23.1 in this match, 25.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.539%51%
25.532%45%
26.527%40%
27.522%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Vitoriawe expect 11.0, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 13.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 57%
Referee: 22.1 fouls per match on average (9 matches in our data)−3.9 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.571%78%
2.545%55%
3.524%35%
4.511%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Vitoriawe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Chapecoense-SCwe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 29%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Chapecoense-SC concede 2.0 goals per game
  • Vitoria score only 0.6 goals per game
  • Chapecoense-SC: newly promoted
  • Vitoria: 17 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Chapecoense-SC: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Vitoria

Chapecoense-SC

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Vitoria301061433:4436
20Chapecoense-SC29391730:6118
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Vitoria vs Chapecoense-SC?

Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-SC (half time 1-0).

Did the Vitoria vs Chapecoense-SC tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards – Vitoria (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5. The tip won.

See also