Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Athletico-PR 2-2 Atletico-MG: prediction, tips and result

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Athletico-PR
3-23-31-33-32-1
2-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Atletico-MG
1-01-13-10-22-1
Stadium:
Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Referee:
Ramon Abatti Abel

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won65%

3.8 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.6 in the visitors', league average 5.2; under 5.5 card points in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (56% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Won60%

    under 24.5 fouls in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (49% of league matches); 21.3 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 21.3 in the visitors', league average 25.0

  • Shots on Target – Atletico-MG: Over 3.5Won59%

    Atletico-MG: 4.8 shots on target a match, Athletico-PR's opponents had 5.3 on average, league average 3.9; over 3.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 10 league matches, Athletico-PR's opponents had over 3.5 in 9 of 10 (52% of league matches)

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost33%

under 3.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (29% of league matches); 3.8 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.6 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAthletico-PR173245%44%Draw29%28%Atletico-MG174126%28%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%53%O2.547%49%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Atletico-MG2:1Athletico-PRL
  2. Atletico-MG1:0Athletico-PRL
  3. Athletico-PR1:0Atletico-MGW
  4. Athletico-PR1:1Atletico-MGD
  5. Atletico-MG2:1Athletico-PRL
Athletico-PR's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.4under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 13
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.7under 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 17%.won · ended 2
RefereeR. Abatti Abel+0.4 yellow cards vs average14 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)75%X21:02:1coverageleague 76% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.6
Athletico-PR : Atletico-MG
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-011%2-19%0-09%2-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-08%2-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-011%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-09%0-08%2-02-09%2-08%0-10-1—0-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals75%73%73%
1X – home team avoid defeat74%71%71%
Over 1.5 goals73%74%74%
12 – no draw71%74%74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat55%56%56%
Under 2.5 goals53%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes52%53%53%
Both teams to score: no48%47%47%
Over 2.5 goals47%49%49%
1 – Athletico-PR win45%44% · Elo 44%44%· Elo 44%
X – draw29%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals27%26%26%
2 – Atletico-MG win26%29% · Elo 28%29%· Elo 28%
Over 3.5 goals25%27%27%
Attack vs defence
Athletico-PR attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1499defence1542−43 pts to the attack
Atletico-MG attack vs Athletico-PR defenceattack1490defence1469+21 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.559%54%
9.546%43%
10.535%32%
11.525%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Athletico-PRwe expect 5.3, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 43%
Atletico-MGwe expect 4.2, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 23.3 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.540%51%
25.534%45%
26.528%40%
27.523%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Athletico-PRwe expect 11.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Atletico-MGwe expect 10.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 27%
Referee: 28.2 fouls per match on average (21 matches in our data)+2.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%35%
4.516%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Athletico-PRwe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Atletico-MGwe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Atletico-MG matches average only 3.6 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Athletico-PR matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Athletico-PR: 19 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Athletico-PR: newly promoted
  • Athletico-PR: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Atletico-MG: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Athletico-PR

Atletico-MG

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Athletico-PR30158749:3553
7Atletico-MG30138941:3547
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG?

Athletico-PR 2-2 Atletico-MG (half time 1-1).

Did the Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also