Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 21
Atletico-MG 1-0 Bragantino: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte
- Referee:
- Lucas Casagrande
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Both Teams To Score: YesLost56%
goals at both ends in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (55% of league matches)
Other tips
- Fouls – Atletico-MG: Under 11.5Lost61%
our numbers for Atletico-MG: 10.7 fouls against a league average of 12.6; Atletico-MG: 10.7 fouls a match, Bragantino's opponents committed 9.9 on average, league average 12.6
- Offsides – Bragantino: Under 1.5Won67%
our numbers for Bragantino: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.4
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost13%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%51%O2.553%48%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Atletico-MG2:2BragantinoD
- Bragantino0:1Atletico-MGW
- Bragantino1:0Atletico-MGL
- Bragantino2:0Atletico-MGL
- Atletico-MG2:1BragantinoW
Atletico-MG's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.3under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 15
Cardsleague cards4.5league 4.9under 4.5: 53%Expected cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.9 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.won · ended 2
RefereeL. Casagrande−0.9 cards vs average12 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%BTTS yes1:0coverageleague 65% · H2H 3/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.6
Atletico-MG : BragantinoMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%2-19%2-08%0-0—0-1—1-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-19%2-09%0-08%0-17%1-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-09%1-011%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-08%2-09%0-00-0—0-08%0-10-1—0-17%1-21-27%1-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%74% | 74% |
| Our tip: Both teams to score: yes | 56%51% | 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Atletico-MG win | 44%50% · Elo 51% | 50%· Elo 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%26% | 26% |
| 2 – Bragantino win | 28%25% · Elo 22% | 25%· Elo 22% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 26% | 26%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%27% | 27% |
Attack vs defence
Atletico-MG attack vs Bragantino defenceattack1498defence1508−10 pts to the attack
Bragantino attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1500defence1542−42 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 9.1 in this match, 9.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.555%53%
9.542%42%
10.531%31%
11.522%24%
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 5.6, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 48%
Bragantinowe expect 3.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 22.3 in this match, 25.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.533%51%
25.527%45%
26.522%40%
27.518%36%
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 10.7, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 29%
Bragantinowe expect 11.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Referee: 25.7 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)−0.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.577%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%35%
4.516%21%
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Bragantinowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Atletico-MG matches average only 3.6 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Atletico-MG: 14 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Bragantino: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:35 | 47 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38:35 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Atletico-MG vs Bragantino?
Atletico-MG 1-0 Bragantino (half time 1-0).
Did the Atletico-MG vs Bragantino tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes. The tip lost.