Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Flamengo RJ 1-0 Fluminense: prediction, tips and result

·

Flamengo RJ
2-01-02-12-12-2
1-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Fluminense
4-03-11-31-03-3
Stadium:
Maracana Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Referee:
Rafael Rodrigo Klein

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Under 4.5Lost61%

referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein averages 3.6 yellow cards a match, league average 4.7; our numbers: 4.1 yellow cards against a league average of 4.7

Other tips

  • Match Result: Flamengo RJWon66%

    Flamengo RJ: won 7 of their last 10 league matches; won 7 of their last 10 league matches at home

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Lost73%

    our numbers: 21.4 fouls against a league average of 25.0; 20.7 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 23.4 in the visitors', league average 25.0

  • Shots on Target – Fluminense: Over 3.5Won56%

    Fluminense: 5.9 shots on target a match, Flamengo RJ's opponents had 4.0 on average, league average 3.9; over 3.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Flamengo RJ's opponents had over 3.5 in 6 of 10 (52% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Flamengo RJ: Under 1.5Won59%

    Flamengo RJ: under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Fluminense's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 6 of 10 (54% of league matches)

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Lost42%

referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein averages 3.6 yellow cards a match, league average 4.7; our numbers: 4.1 yellow cards against a league average of 4.7

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloFlamengo RJ194265%64%Draw21%21%Fluminense176514%14%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%54%O2.554%56%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.0not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Fluminense1:2Flamengo RJW
  2. Fluminense2:1Flamengo RJL
  3. Flamengo RJ1:0FluminenseW
  4. Flamengo RJ0:2FluminenseL
  5. Fluminense0:1Flamengo RJW
Flamengo RJ's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.3under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 6
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.7under 4.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 27%.lost · ended 7
RefereeR. Rodrigo Klein−1.4 yellow cards vs average19 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%O2.52:0coverageleague 57% · H2H 2/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 0.8total 2.8Attack/defence1.9 : 1.0total 2.9
Flamengo RJ : Fluminense
Most likely scores
Market2-012%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-08%3-1—Attack/defence2-010%1-010%1-111%2-110%3-07%3-16%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-010%1-01-011%1-010%1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-08%3-07%3-13-1—3-16%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat86%82%82%
12 – no draw79%78%78%
Over 1.5 goals78%79%79%
Under 3.5 goals69%67%67%
1 – Flamengo RJ win65%59% · Elo 64%59%· Elo 64%
Over 2.5 goals54%56%56%
Both teams to score: no51%46%46%
Both teams to score: yes49%54%54%
Under 2.5 goals46%44%44%
X2 – away team avoid defeat35%41%41%
Over 3.5 goals31%33%33%
Under 1.5 goals22%21%21%
X – draw21%22% · Elo 21%22%· Elo 21%
2 – Fluminense win14%19% · Elo 14%19%· Elo 14%
Attack vs defence
Flamengo RJ attack vs Fluminense defenceattack1671defence1569+102 pts to the attack
Fluminense attack vs Flamengo RJ defenceattack1544defence1610−66 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 9.6 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.561%55%
9.548%43%
10.537%33%
11.526%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Flamengo RJwe expect 5.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Fluminensewe expect 4.1, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 78%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 22%
We expect 21.4 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.527%51%
25.522%45%
26.517%40%
27.514%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Flamengo RJwe expect 11.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Fluminensewe expect 11.1, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Referee: 24.5 fouls per match on average (31 matches in our data)−2.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.552%55%
3.530%34%
4.515%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Flamengo RJwe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Fluminensewe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Flamengo RJ concede a lot late on: 10 of 16 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Fluminense score a lot late on: 14 of 32 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Flamengo RJ played 3 days ago
  • Fluminense played 3 days ago

League form

Flamengo RJ

Fluminense

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Flamengo RJ30197458:2564
4Fluminense30149748:3751
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Flamengo RJ vs Fluminense?

Flamengo RJ 1-0 Fluminense (half time 0-0).

Did the Flamengo RJ vs Fluminense tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Under 4.5. The tip lost.

See also