Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Santos 2-2 Flamengo RJ: prediction, tips and result

·

Santos
1-03-22-12-12-1
2-2Full time(half time 0-2)
Flamengo RJ
2-12-11-02-03-0
Stadium:
Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Referee:
Anderson Daronco

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Both Teams To Score: YesWon58%

Flamengo RJ: scored in each of their last 12 league matches

Other tips

  • Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost64%

    our numbers: 4.8 card points against a league average of 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Lost67%

    under 24.5 fouls in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (49% of league matches); our numbers: 22.4 fouls against a league average of 25.0

  • Shots on Target – Flamengo RJ: Over 3.5Won62%

    Flamengo RJ: 5.6 shots on target a match, Santos's opponents had 4.9 on average, league average 3.9; over 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 league matches (52% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Flamengo RJ: Under 1.5Won70%

    our numbers for Flamengo RJ: 1.1 offsides against a league average of 1.4; Flamengo RJ: under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Santos's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 8 of 10 (56% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost11%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSantos172622%24%Draw24%27%Flamengo RJ194254%50%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%59%O2.559%56%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.6both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Flamengo RJ3:1SantosL
  2. Flamengo RJ3:2SantosL
  3. Santos1:0Flamengo RJW
  4. Flamengo RJ1:2SantosW
  5. Santos2:3Flamengo RJL
Santos's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 20%.lost · ended 10
RefereeA. Daronco−0.1 yellow cards vs average16 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%U3.52:2coverageleague 83% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.9total 3.1Attack/defence1.3 : 1.6total 2.9
Santos : Flamengo RJ
Most likely scores
Market1-111%1-210%0-29%0-18%2-1—1-0—1-36%Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-27%0-18%2-18%1-07%1-3—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-210%1-29%0-20-29%0-27%0-10-18%0-18%2-12-1—2-18%1-01-0—1-07%1-31-36%1-3—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%79%79%
X2 – away team avoid defeat78%69%69%
12 – no draw76%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals63%67%67%
Over 2.5 goals59%56%56%
Our tip: Both teams to score: yes59%59%59%
2 – Flamengo RJ win54%44% · Elo 50%44%· Elo 50%
1X – home team avoid defeat46%56%56%
Under 2.5 goals41%44%44%
Both teams to score: no41%41%41%
Over 3.5 goals37%33%33%
X – draw24%25% · Elo 27%25%· Elo 27%
1 – Santos win22%31% · Elo 24%31%· Elo 24%
Under 1.5 goals18%21%21%
Attack vs defence
Santos attack vs Flamengo RJ defenceattack1512defence1620−108 pts to the attack
Flamengo RJ attack vs Santos defenceattack1670defence1471+199 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.558%54%
9.546%43%
10.534%32%
11.524%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Santoswe expect 5.0, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
Flamengo RJwe expect 4.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 62%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 72%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 28%
We expect 22.4 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.534%51%
25.528%45%
26.523%40%
27.518%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Santoswe expect 11.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Flamengo RJwe expect 11.1, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Referee: 25.5 fouls per match on average (30 matches in our data)−0.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.552%55%
3.531%35%
4.515%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Santoswe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Flamengo RJwe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Santos: 5 wins in a row
  • Flamengo RJ: 5 wins in a row
  • Santos: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Flamengo RJ concede a lot late on: 8 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Santos: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Flamengo RJ: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Santos

Flamengo RJ

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Flamengo RJ30197458:2564
8Santos301191046:4542
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Santos vs Flamengo RJ?

Santos 2-2 Flamengo RJ (half time 0-2).

Did the Santos vs Flamengo RJ tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes. The tip won.

See also