Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 21

Sao Paulo 1-2 Santos: prediction, tips and result

·

Sao Paulo
0-12-12-00-21-0
1-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Santos
2-12-13-21-01-1
Stadium:
Morumbí, Sao Paulo
Referee:
Matheus Delgado Candancan

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards: Under 4.5Won60%

referee Matheus Delgado Candancan averages 2.9 cards a match, league average 4.9; our numbers: 4.2 cards against a league average of 4.9

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Won62%

    referee Matheus Delgado Candancan averages 24.0 fouls a match, league average 25.1; our numbers: 23.0 fouls against a league average of 25.1

  • Offsides – Sao Paulo: Under 1.5Won67%

    Sao Paulo: 1.0 offsides a match, Santos's opponents were caught offside 0.9 times on average, league average 1.5; our numbers for Sao Paulo: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.5

  • Shots on Target – Sao Paulo: Under 5.5Lost63%

    Sao Paulo: 3.8 shots on target a match, Santos's opponents had 4.7 on average, league average 5.2

For the brave
Cards: Under 3.5Lost42%

referee Matheus Delgado Candancan averages 2.9 cards a match, league average 4.9; our numbers: 4.2 cards against a league average of 4.9

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSao Paulo169246%43%Draw28%28%Santos172626%29%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%52%O2.544%49%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Santos1:1Sao PauloD
  2. Santos1:0Sao PauloL
  3. Sao Paulo2:1SantosW
  4. Santos0:0Sao PauloD
  5. Sao Paulo4:1SantosW
Sao Paulo's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.2under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 15
Cardsleague cards4.2league 4.9under 4.5: 60%Expected cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.9 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 4
RefereeM. Delgado Candancan−2.3 cards vs average11 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)75%X21:02:1coverageleague 76% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.0total 2.4Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.7
Sao Paulo : Santos
Most likely scores
Market1-114%1-012%0-010%2-19%2-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%0-08%2-110%2-09%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%1-01-012%1-011%0-00-010%0-08%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals77%73%73%
1X – home team avoid defeat74%76%76%
12 – no draw72%74%74%
Over 1.5 goals71%74%74%
Under 2.5 goals56%51%51%
X2 – away team avoid defeat54%50%50%
Both teams to score: no51%48%48%
Both teams to score: yes49%52%52%
1 – Sao Paulo win46%50% · Elo 43%50%· Elo 43%
Over 2.5 goals44%49%49%
Under 1.5 goals29%26%26%
X – draw28%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
2 – Santos win26%24% · Elo 29%24%· Elo 29%
Over 3.5 goals23%27%27%
Attack vs defence
Sao Paulo attack vs Santos defenceattack1480defence1473+7 pts to the attack
Santos attack vs Sao Paulo defenceattack1509defence1546−37 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 9.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.549%53%
9.536%42%
10.526%31%
11.517%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 4.9, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 37%
Santoswe expect 3.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 23.0 in this match, 25.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.538%51%
25.532%45%
26.526%40%
27.521%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 11.9, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 42%
Santoswe expect 12.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 46%
Referee: 24.0 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)−2.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.578%78%
2.554%55%
3.532%35%
4.517%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Santoswe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 48%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Santos: 4 wins in a row
  • Santos: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Sao Paulo: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Santos: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Sao Paulo

Santos

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Santos301191046:4542
10Sao Paulo301161335:3539
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Sao Paulo vs Santos?

Sao Paulo 1-2 Santos (half time 1-1).

Did the Sao Paulo vs Santos tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards: Under 4.5. The tip won.

See also