Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba: prediction, tips and result

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Fluminense
2-13-31-01-33-1
4-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Coritiba
0-53-31-23-22-1
Stadium:
Maracana Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Referee:
Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won64%

referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Offsides – Fluminense: Under 1.5Lost66%

    Fluminense: under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Coritiba's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 8 of 10 (54% of league matches); 1.2 offsides a match, Coritiba's opponents were caught offside 0.9 times on average, league average 1.5

  • Fouls – Coritiba: Under 12.5Won66%

    our numbers for Coritiba: 11.2 fouls against a league average of 12.5; Coritiba: 9.9 fouls a match, Fluminense's opponents committed 12.2 on average, league average 12.5

  • Shots on Target – Fluminense: Over 5.5Won58%

    our numbers for Fluminense: 6.3 shots on target against a league average of 5.2

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Won49%

referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloFluminense176566%57%Draw20%24%Coritiba164514%19%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%51%O2.556%56%|exp. goals 2.1 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Coritiba1:1FluminenseD
  2. Fluminense2:1CoritibaW
  3. Coritiba2:0FluminenseL
  4. Fluminense5:2CoritibaW
  5. Coritiba3:2FluminenseL
Fluminense's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 5
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.7under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.won · ended 1
RefereeR. Jose Pereira de Lima−0.6 yellow cards vs average19 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)68%O2.52:0coverageleague 57% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 0.8total 2.9Attack/defence2.1 : 0.9total 2.9
Fluminense : Coritiba
Most likely scores
Market2-012%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-08%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-08%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-011%1-01-011%1-011%1-11-110%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-08%3-08%3-13-1—3-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat86%86%86%
12 – no draw80%79%79%
Over 1.5 goals79%79%79%
Under 3.5 goals67%66%66%
1 – Fluminense win66%65% · Elo 57%65%· Elo 57%
Over 2.5 goals56%56%56%
Both teams to score: yes50%51%51%
Both teams to score: no50%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals44%44%44%
X2 – away team avoid defeat34%35%35%
Over 3.5 goals33%34%34%
Under 1.5 goals21%21%21%
X – draw20%21% · Elo 24%21%· Elo 24%
2 – Coritiba win14%14% · Elo 19%14%· Elo 19%
Attack vs defence
Fluminense attack vs Coritiba defenceattack1538defence1396+142 pts to the attack
Coritiba attack vs Fluminense defenceattack1431defence1565−134 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 9.5 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.560%54%
9.548%43%
10.536%32%
11.526%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Fluminensewe expect 6.3, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 58%
Coritibawe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 23.2 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.539%51%
25.533%45%
26.527%40%
27.522%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Fluminensewe expect 11.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 41%
Coritibawe expect 11.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Referee: 26.4 fouls per match on average (37 matches in our data)−0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%35%
4.515%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Fluminensewe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Coritibawe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 44%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Fluminense score a lot late on: 14 of 31 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Coritiba: newly promoted
  • Fluminense: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Coritiba: 19 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Fluminense

Coritiba

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Fluminense30149748:3751
11Coritiba301091138:4839
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Fluminense vs Coritiba?

Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba (half time 1-0).

Did the Fluminense vs Coritiba tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also