Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Fluminense vs Santos: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%54%O2.551%55%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Santos2:3FluminenseW
- Santos0:0FluminenseD
- Fluminense1:0SantosW
- Santos0:3FluminenseW
- Fluminense1:0SantosW
Fluminense's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.7over 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.9 : 1.0total 2.9
Fluminense : SantosMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%2-19%2-08%0-08%3-1—3-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-010%2-110%2-010%0-0—3-16%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-111%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-08%2-010%0-00-08%0-0—3-13-1—3-16%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%78% | 78% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%43% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%45% | 45% |
| 1 – Fluminense win | 46%57% · Elo 50% | 57%· Elo 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 27%23% · Elo 27% | 23%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Santos win | 27%20% · Elo 24% | 20%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Fluminense attack vs Santos defenceattack1541defence1469+72 pts to the attack
Santos attack vs Fluminense defenceattack1519defence1574−55 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%55%
9.551%43%
10.539%32%
11.528%26%
Each team on its own
Fluminensewe expect 6.3, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 58%
Santoswe expect 3.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 24.5 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.554%59%
24.548%51%
25.541%45%
26.535%40%
Each team on its own
Fluminensewe expect 12.0, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 42%
Santoswe expect 12.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.577%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%34%
4.516%20%
Each team on its own
Fluminensewe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Santoswe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Santos: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Fluminense score a lot late on: 13 of 31 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Fluminense: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Santos: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46:45 | 42 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fluminense vs Santos?
Fluminense are the favourites. Chances: Fluminense win 46%, draw 27%, Santos win 27%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Santos?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Fluminense 1.6, Santos 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
When is Fluminense vs Santos?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 18 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).