Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos: prediction, tips and result

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Atletico-MG
0-23-11-11-02-2
2-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Santos
2-22-12-12-13-2
Stadium:
Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte
Referee:
Alex Gomes Stefano

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost65%

our numbers: 4.8 card points against a league average of 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesWon56%

    Santos: scored in each of their last 8 league matches

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Won63%

    under 24.5 fouls in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (49% of league matches); our numbers: 22.9 fouls against a league average of 25.0

  • Offsides – Atletico-MG: Under 1.5Won67%

    our numbers for Atletico-MG: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.5; Atletico-MG: 1.3 offsides a match, Santos's opponents were caught offside 0.7 times on average, league average 1.5

  • Shots on Target – Santos: Over 3.5Lost55%

    Santos: 4.9 shots on target a match, Atletico-MG's opponents had 4.6 on average, league average 3.9

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost32%

under 3.5 card points in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 2 of the visitors' last 10 (29% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAtletico-MG174144%45%Draw27%28%Santos172629%27%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%54%O2.552%52%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Atletico-MG4:2SantosW
  2. Santos2:0Atletico-MGL
  3. Santos1:0Atletico-MGL
  4. Atletico-MG1:1SantosD
  5. Santos2:0Atletico-MGL
Atletico-MG's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.3over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 42% of matches end over 10.5 corners.won · ended 15
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.7under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.lost · ended 8
RefereeA. Gomes Stefano−1.0 yellow cards vs average11 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%BTTS yes1:0coverageleague 65% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.8
Atletico-MG : Santos
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%2-19%2-08%1-27%0-0—0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-110%2-09%1-2—0-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%1-21-27%1-2—0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals77%76%76%
12 – no draw73%75%75%
1X – home team avoid defeat71%76%76%
Under 3.5 goals70%70%70%
X2 – away team avoid defeat56%49%49%
Both teams to score: yes56%54%54%
Over 2.5 goals52%52%52%
Under 2.5 goals48%48%48%
1 – Atletico-MG win44%51% · Elo 45%51%· Elo 45%
Both teams to score: no44%46%46%
Over 3.5 goals30%30%30%
2 – Santos win29%24% · Elo 27%24%· Elo 27%
X – draw27%25% · Elo 28%25%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals23%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Atletico-MG attack vs Santos defenceattack1495defence1471+24 pts to the attack
Santos attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1522defence1535−13 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.559%55%
9.546%43%
10.535%33%
11.525%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 5.6, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Santoswe expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.537%51%
25.531%45%
26.525%40%
27.521%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 11.7, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Santoswe expect 11.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Referee: 28.2 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)−0.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.571%78%
2.546%55%
3.525%34%
4.511%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Santoswe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 36%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Atletico-MG matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Santos: unbeaten in 8 matches
  • Santos: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Atletico-MG played 3 days ago
  • Santos played 3 days ago

League form

Atletico-MG

Santos

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Atletico-MG30138941:3547
8Santos301191046:4542
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos (half time 0-0).

Did the Atletico-MG vs Santos tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip lost.

See also