Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Vasco vs Corinthians: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%53%O2.547%50%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Corinthians1:0VascoL
- Vasco2:3CorinthiansL
- Corinthians3:0VascoL
- Corinthians3:1VascoL
- Vasco2:0CorinthiansW
Vasco's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4over 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 43% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.7over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.0total 2.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Vasco : CorinthiansMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-011%2-010%2-19%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-09%2-19%0-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-011%1-011%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-09%0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%75% | 75% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Vasco win | 50%48% · Elo 50% | 48%· Elo 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 50%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 49%47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%50% | 50% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%25% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%28% | 28% |
| 2 – Corinthians win | 23%26% · Elo 23% | 26%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Vasco attack vs Corinthians defenceattack1513defence1529−16 pts to the attack
Corinthians attack vs Vasco defenceattack1455defence1471−16 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%55%
9.543%43%
10.532%32%
11.522%26%
Each team on its own
Vascowe expect 5.9, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 53%
Corinthianswe expect 3.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 24.4 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.554%59%
24.547%51%
25.541%45%
26.535%40%
Each team on its own
Vascowe expect 13.3, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 56%
Corinthianswe expect 11.0, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 32%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.581%78%
2.560%55%
3.538%34%
4.521%20%
Each team on its own
Vascowe expect 1.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Corinthianswe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Vasco matches average only 3.6 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Corinthians matches average 6.2 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Corinthians: 8 defeats in a row
- Corinthians: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Vasco score a lot late on: 9 of 22 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Vasco: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Corinthians: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vasco | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36:42 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31:38 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vasco vs Corinthians?
Vasco are the favourites. Chances: Vasco win 50%, draw 27%, Corinthians win 23%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Vasco vs Corinthians?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Vasco 1.6, Corinthians 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Vasco vs Corinthians?
The chance that both teams score is 51%.
When is Vasco vs Corinthians?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).