Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Corinthians vs Vitoria: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 5d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%48%O2.545%46%|exp. goals 1.6 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Vitoria0:0CorinthiansD
- Vitoria0:1CorinthiansW
- Corinthians0:0VitoriaD
- Vitoria1:2CorinthiansW
- Corinthians3:2VitoriaW
Corinthians's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.0league 4.7over 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 5.0 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 0.8total 2.5Attack/defence1.6 : 0.9total 2.5
Corinthians : VitoriaMost likely scores
Market1-013%1-112%2-012%2-19%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-112%2-010%2-110%0-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-013%1-11-112%1-112%2-02-012%2-010%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 82%79% | 79% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%72% | 72% |
| 1 – Corinthians win | 57%53% · Elo 49% | 53%· Elo 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 54%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%46% | 46% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 42%47% | 47% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%25% | 25% |
| 2 – Vitoria win | 17%21% · Elo 24% | 21%· Elo 24% |
Attack vs defence
Corinthians attack vs Vitoria defenceattack1455defence1463−8 pts to the attack
Vitoria attack vs Corinthians defenceattack1418defence1529−111 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.558%55%
9.546%43%
10.534%32%
11.524%26%
Each team on its own
Corinthianswe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 46%
Vitoriawe expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Over 24.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 25.2 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.559%59%
24.553%51%
25.546%45%
26.540%40%
Each team on its own
Corinthianswe expect 12.9, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 52%
Vitoriawe expect 12.3, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 58%close to the league averageunder 42%over
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.580%78%
2.558%55%
3.536%34%
4.519%20%
Each team on its own
Corinthianswe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Vitoriawe expect 1.8, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Corinthians8 defeats in a rowat home: 4Went on 55%League 24%Model 17%Record 12
- Vitoria16 matches without a win awayoverall: 1Went on 80%League 76%Model 82%Record 21
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Corinthians matches average 6.2 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Corinthians: 8 defeats in a row
- Corinthians: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Corinthians: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Vitoria: 9 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33:44 | 36 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31:38 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Corinthians vs Vitoria?
Corinthians are the favourites. Chances: Corinthians win 57%, draw 25%, Vitoria win 17%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Vitoria?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Corinthians 1.7, Vitoria 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Vitoria?
The chance that both teams score is 46%.
When is Corinthians vs Vitoria?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 20 October 2026, 00:00 (UK time).