Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria: prediction, tips and result

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Sao Paulo
2-00-21-01-20-2
2-1Full time(half time 1-1)
Vitoria
4-01-32-21-01-2
Stadium:
Morumbí, Sao Paulo
Referee:
Lucas Casagrande

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost68%

referee Lucas Casagrande averages 3.8 card points a match, league average 5.2; our numbers: 4.6 card points against a league average of 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Sao Paulo: Over 12.5Lost66%

    our numbers for Sao Paulo: 14.5 fouls against a league average of 12.5; Sao Paulo: 14.2 fouls a match, Vitoria's opponents committed 14.9 on average, league average 12.5

  • Offsides – Sao Paulo: Under 1.5Won65%

    Sao Paulo: 1.2 offsides a match, Vitoria's opponents were caught offside 1.0 times on average, league average 1.5; our numbers for Sao Paulo: 1.3 offsides against a league average of 1.5

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost35%

referee Lucas Casagrande averages 3.8 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSao Paulo169257%51%Draw26%27%Vitoria163318%23%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%48%O2.545%47%|exp. goals 1.7 : 0.9both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Vitoria2:0Sao PauloL
  2. Vitoria1:0Sao PauloL
  3. Sao Paulo2:0VitoriaW
  4. Sao Paulo2:1VitoriaW
  5. Vitoria1:3Sao PauloW
Sao Paulo's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4over 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 42% of matches end over 10.5 corners.lost · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.7under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.lost · ended 8
RefereeL. Casagrande−0.8 yellow cards vs average13 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%11:1coverageleague 62% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 0.8total 2.5Attack/defence1.7 : 0.9total 2.6
Sao Paulo : Vitoria
Most likely scores
Market1-013%1-112%2-012%2-19%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-112%2-011%2-110%0-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-013%1-11-112%1-112%2-02-012%2-011%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat83%80%80%
Under 3.5 goals76%74%74%
12 – no draw75%75%75%
Over 1.5 goals71%72%72%
1 – Sao Paulo win57%55% · Elo 51%55%· Elo 51%
Under 2.5 goals55%53%53%
Both teams to score: no54%52%52%
Both teams to score: yes46%48%48%
Over 2.5 goals45%47%47%
X2 – away team avoid defeat44%45%45%
Under 1.5 goals29%28%28%
X – draw26%25% · Elo 27%25%· Elo 27%
Over 3.5 goals24%26%26%
2 – Vitoria win18%20% · Elo 23%20%· Elo 23%
Attack vs defence
Sao Paulo attack vs Vitoria defenceattack1479defence1464+15 pts to the attack
Vitoria attack vs Sao Paulo defenceattack1418defence1539−121 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.557%55%
9.545%43%
10.534%33%
11.524%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 5.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Vitoriawe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 25.7 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.555%51%
25.549%45%
26.543%40%
27.537%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 14.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 66%
Vitoriawe expect 11.7, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Referee: 25.5 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)−0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.552%56%
3.530%35%
4.515%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Vitoriawe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 42%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Sao Paulo matches average 12.6 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Sao Paulo played 3 days ago
  • Vitoria played 3 days ago

League form

Sao Paulo

Vitoria

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Sao Paulo301161335:3539
12Vitoria301061433:4436
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria (half time 1-1).

Did the Sao Paulo vs Vitoria tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip lost.

See also