Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo: prediction, tips and result

·

Cruzeiro
2-11-33-11-23-1
2-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Sao Paulo
1-21-00-22-02-1
Stadium:
Governador Magalhaes Pinto, Belo Horizonte
Referee:
Wilton Pereira Sampaio

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Sao Paulo (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won56%

Sao Paulo: under 2.5 card points in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Cruzeiro's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 7 of 10 (46% of league matches); 1.5 card points a match, Cruzeiro's opponents collected 2.0 card points on average, league average 2.7; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Sao Paulo: Over 3.5Lost58%

    Sao Paulo: 4.6 shots on target a match, Cruzeiro's opponents had 5.3 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Cruzeiro's opponents had over 3.5 in 8 of 10 (52% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Sao Paulo: Under 1.5Lost66%

    our numbers for Sao Paulo: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.4

For the brave
Cards – Sao Paulo (yellow=1, red=2): Under 1.5Won31%

Sao Paulo: under 1.5 card points in 6 of their last 10 league matches, Cruzeiro's opponents collected under 1.5 card points in 4 of 10 (24% of league matches); 1.5 card points a match, Cruzeiro's opponents collected 2.0 card points on average, league average 2.7; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloCruzeiro176355%54%Draw25%26%Sao Paulo169220%21%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%50%O2.548%46%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Sao Paulo4:1CruzeiroL
  2. Cruzeiro1:0Sao PauloW
  3. Sao Paulo1:1CruzeiroD
  4. Cruzeiro0:1Sao PauloL
  5. Sao Paulo2:0CruzeiroL
Cruzeiro's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.3under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 16
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.0league 4.7over 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 5.0 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.lost · ended 3
RefereeW. Pereira Sampaio+1.1 yellow cards vs average14 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%11:1coverageleague 62% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 0.9total 2.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.5
Cruzeiro : Sao Paulo
Most likely scores
Market1-112%1-012%2-011%2-110%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-010%2-19%0-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%2-02-011%2-010%2-12-110%2-19%0-00-08%0-08%0-10-1—0-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat80%77%77%
12 – no draw75%74%74%
Over 1.5 goals74%72%72%
Under 3.5 goals74%75%75%
1 – Cruzeiro win55%50% · Elo 54%50%· Elo 54%
Under 2.5 goals52%54%54%
Both teams to score: no51%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes49%50%50%
Over 2.5 goals48%46%46%
X2 – away team avoid defeat45%50%50%
Under 1.5 goals26%28%28%
Over 3.5 goals26%25%25%
X – draw25%26% · Elo 26%26%· Elo 26%
2 – Sao Paulo win20%24% · Elo 21%24%· Elo 21%
Attack vs defence
Cruzeiro attack vs Sao Paulo defenceattack1527defence1542−15 pts to the attack
Sao Paulo attack vs Cruzeiro defenceattack1482defence1549−67 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.556%53%
9.543%42%
10.532%31%
11.522%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Cruzeirowe expect 5.1, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
Sao Paulowe expect 4.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 58%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 25.6 in this match, 25.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.555%51%
25.549%45%
26.542%40%
27.536%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Cruzeirowe expect 12.9, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Sao Paulowe expect 12.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Referee: 26.1 fouls per match on average (29 matches in our data)0.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%35%
4.516%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Cruzeirowe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Sao Paulowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Cruzeiro: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Cruzeiro: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Cruzeiro: 17 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Sao Paulo: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Cruzeiro

Sao Paulo

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Cruzeiro301461046:4448
10Sao Paulo301161335:3539
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo (half time 1-0).

Did the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards – Sao Paulo (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5. The tip won.

See also