Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians: prediction, tips and result

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Palmeiras
1-10-02-00-01-0
4-1Full time(half time 2-0)
Corinthians
1-21-31-21-20-1
Stadium:
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Referee:
Anderson Daronco

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Corinthians (yellow=1, red=2): Over 2.5Won57%

Corinthians: over 2.5 card points in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Palmeiras's opponents collected over 2.5 card points in 8 of 10 (54% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Offsides – Corinthians: Under 1.5Won70%

    our numbers for Corinthians: 1.1 offsides against a league average of 1.4; Corinthians: 1.4 offsides a match, Palmeiras's opponents were caught offside 0.7 times on average, league average 1.4

  • Shots on Target – Corinthians: Under 3.5Won58%

    our numbers for Corinthians: 3.3 shots on target against a league average of 3.9

  • Fouls – Palmeiras: Over 12.5Lost56%

    Corinthians's opponents committed over 12.5 in 8 of 10 (49% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:0Lost13%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloPalmeiras187460%67%Draw24%20%Corinthians166616%13%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%45%O2.546%46%|exp. goals 1.8 : 0.8both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Corinthians0:0PalmeirasD
  2. Corinthians1:1PalmeirasD
  3. Palmeiras2:0CorinthiansW
  4. Corinthians2:0PalmeirasL
  5. Palmeiras2:0CorinthiansW
Palmeiras's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.3under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.0league 4.7over 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 5.0 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.won · ended 7
RefereeA. Daronco+0.3 yellow cards vs average17 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%11:1coverageleague 62% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 0.8total 2.5Attack/defence1.8 : 0.8total 2.5
Palmeiras : Corinthians
Most likely scores
Market1-013%2-012%1-112%2-19%0-09%3-0—Attack/defence1-014%2-012%1-111%2-110%0-08%3-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-014%2-02-012%2-012%1-11-112%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%3-03-0—3-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat84%84%84%
12 – no draw76%76%76%
Under 3.5 goals76%75%75%
Over 1.5 goals72%72%72%
1 – Palmeiras win60%61% · Elo 67%61%· Elo 67%
Both teams to score: no55%55%55%
Under 2.5 goals54%54%54%
Over 2.5 goals46%46%46%
Both teams to score: yes45%45%45%
X2 – away team avoid defeat40%39%39%
Under 1.5 goals28%28%28%
X – draw24%24% · Elo 20%24%· Elo 20%
Over 3.5 goals24%25%25%
2 – Corinthians win16%16% · Elo 13%16%· Elo 13%
Attack vs defence
Palmeiras attack vs Corinthians defenceattack1592defence1542+50 pts to the attack
Corinthians attack vs Palmeiras defenceattack1455defence1658−203 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.555%55%
9.543%43%
10.532%33%
11.522%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 6.0, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 54%
Corinthianswe expect 3.3, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Over 25.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 26.0 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.557%51%
25.551%45%
26.545%40%
27.539%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 13.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 56%
Corinthianswe expect 12.9, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Referee: 25.6 fouls per match on average (31 matches in our data)−0.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.579%78%
2.557%55%
3.535%34%
4.519%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 1.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Corinthianswe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 31%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Corinthians matches average 6.2 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Corinthians: 7 defeats in a row
  • Corinthians: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Palmeiras played 3 days ago
  • Corinthians: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Palmeiras

Corinthians

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Palmeiras30189352:2263
16Corinthians30881431:3832
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians (half time 2-0).

Did the Palmeiras vs Corinthians tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards – Corinthians (yellow=1, red=2): Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also