Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia: prediction, tips and result

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Palmeiras
4-11-10-02-00-0
1-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Bahia
1-22-13-23-22-0
Stadium:
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Referee:
Braulio da Silva Machado

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won68%

our numbers: 4.6 card points against a league average of 5.2; referee Braulio da Silva Machado averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Match Result: PalmeirasWon62%

    Palmeiras: won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Won66%

    our numbers: 22.5 fouls against a league average of 25.0; referee Braulio da Silva Machado averages 20.0 fouls a match, league average 25.0

  • Offsides – Bahia: Under 1.5Won70%

    our numbers for Bahia: 1.1 offsides against a league average of 1.4

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won35%

referee Braulio da Silva Machado averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloPalmeiras187462%63%Draw21%22%Bahia171417%15%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%51%O2.560%53%|exp. goals 1.9 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Bahia1:2PalmeirasW
  2. Bahia1:0PalmeirasL
  3. Palmeiras0:1BahiaL
  4. Bahia1:2PalmeirasW
  5. Palmeiras2:0BahiaW
Palmeiras's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.7under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 3
RefereeB. da Silva Machado−1.3 yellow cards vs average6 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%O2.51:1coverageleague 61% · H2H 2/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 1.0total 3.1Attack/defence1.9 : 0.9total 2.8
Palmeiras : Bahia
Most likely scores
Market1-09%2-010%1-110%2-110%3-17%3-0—0-0—Attack/defence1-011%2-011%1-111%2-110%3-1—3-07%0-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-09%1-011%2-02-010%2-011%1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%3-13-17%3-1—3-03-0—3-07%0-00-0—0-06%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat83%83%83%
Over 1.5 goals82%77%77%
12 – no draw79%77%77%
1 – Palmeiras win62%60% · Elo 63%60%· Elo 63%
Under 3.5 goals62%69%69%
Over 2.5 goals60%53%53%
Both teams to score: yes56%51%51%
Both teams to score: no44%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals40%47%47%
X2 – away team avoid defeat38%40%40%
Over 3.5 goals38%31%31%
X – draw21%23% · Elo 22%23%· Elo 22%
Under 1.5 goals18%23%23%
2 – Bahia win17%17% · Elo 15%17%· Elo 15%
Attack vs defence
Palmeiras attack vs Bahia defenceattack1593defence1498+95 pts to the attack
Bahia attack vs Palmeiras defenceattack1548defence1655−107 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.556%54%
9.543%43%
10.532%32%
11.522%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 5.7, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 49%
Bahiawe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 72%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 28%
We expect 22.5 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.534%51%
25.528%45%
26.523%40%
27.519%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 11.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Bahiawe expect 12.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 48%
Referee: 20.0 fouls per match on average (6 matches in our data)−5.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 52%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.573%78%
2.548%55%
3.527%35%
4.513%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Bahiawe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Palmeiras

Bahia

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Palmeiras30189352:2263
5Bahia301310744:3649
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia (half time 1-0).

Did the Palmeiras vs Bahia tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also