Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Botafogo RJ 1-2 Vasco: prediction, tips and result

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Botafogo RJ
0-30-01-13-20-2
1-2Full time(half time 0-1)
Vasco
5-02-10-13-11-4
Stadium:
Estadio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Referee:
Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won63%

4.6 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.3 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Total Goals: Over 2.5Won59%

    our numbers: 3.1 goals in total in this match, league average 2.7

  • Fouls – Botafogo RJ: Under 12.5Won65%

    our numbers for Botafogo RJ: 11.3 fouls against a league average of 12.6; Vasco's opponents committed under 12.5 in 9 of 10 (51% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Botafogo RJ: Under 1.5Lost66%

    Botafogo RJ: under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Vasco's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 8 of 10 (54% of league matches); 1.0 offsides a match, Vasco's opponents were caught offside 1.0 times on average, league average 1.5

  • Shots on Target – Vasco: Over 3.5Won56%

    Vasco: 4.9 shots on target a match, Botafogo RJ's opponents had 4.7 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 10 league matches, Botafogo RJ's opponents had over 3.5 in 8 of 10 (52% of league matches)

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won31%

under 3.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (28% of league matches); 4.6 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.3 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloBotafogo RJ169831%45%Draw26%28%Vasco170943%27%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%58%O2.559%59%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Vasco1:2Botafogo RJW
  2. Botafogo RJ3:0VascoW
  3. Vasco0:2Botafogo RJW
  4. Botafogo RJ3:0VascoW
  5. Vasco1:1Botafogo RJD
Botafogo RJ's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.3under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 21
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.7under 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 20%.won · ended 1
RefereeB. Arleu de Araujo+0.3 yellow cards vs average16 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%O2.51:1coverageleague 61% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.7total 3.1Attack/defence1.9 : 1.1total 3.1
Botafogo RJ : Vasco
Most likely scores
Market1-112%2-18%1-29%1-0—2-0—0-17%3-1—0-26%Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-26%1-09%2-09%0-1—3-16%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-18%2-110%1-21-29%1-26%1-01-0—1-09%2-02-0—2-09%0-10-17%0-1—3-13-1—3-16%0-20-26%0-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%81%81%
12 – no draw74%77%77%
X2 – away team avoid defeat69%45%45%
Under 3.5 goals64%64%64%
Both teams to score: yes62%58%58%
Over 2.5 goals59%59%59%
1X – home team avoid defeat57%78%78%
2 – Vasco win43%22% · Elo 27%22%· Elo 27%
Under 2.5 goals41%41%41%
Both teams to score: no38%42%42%
Over 3.5 goals36%36%36%
1 – Botafogo RJ win31%55% · Elo 45%55%· Elo 45%
X – draw26%23% · Elo 28%23%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals18%19%19%
Attack vs defence
Botafogo RJ attack vs Vasco defenceattack1552defence1452+100 pts to the attack
Vasco attack vs Botafogo RJ defenceattack1523defence1507+16 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.557%53%
9.545%42%
10.533%31%
11.523%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Botafogo RJwe expect 5.4, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 45%
Vascowe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 24.0 in this match, 25.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.544%51%
25.538%45%
26.532%40%
27.526%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Botafogo RJwe expect 11.3, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Vascowe expect 12.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 48%
Referee: 26.0 fouls per match on average (29 matches in our data)0.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 50%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 50%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.574%78%
2.550%55%
3.528%35%
4.514%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Botafogo RJwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Vascowe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Vasco matches average only 3.3 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Botafogo RJ: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Vasco: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Botafogo RJ

Vasco

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Botafogo RJ30991243:4836
14Vasco29981236:4235
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Botafogo RJ vs Vasco?

Botafogo RJ 1-2 Vasco (half time 0-1).

Did the Botafogo RJ vs Vasco tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also