Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Sao Paulo vs Vasco: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%54%O2.545%51%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Vasco2:1Sao PauloL
- Vasco0:2Sao PauloW
- Sao Paulo1:3VascoL
- Sao Paulo3:0VascoW
- Vasco4:1Sao PauloL
Sao Paulo's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.4over 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 43% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.7under 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.7
Sao Paulo : VascoMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-011%2-19%0-09%2-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%0-07%2-09%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-011%1-011%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-09%0-07%2-02-09%2-09%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%49% | 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 49%46% | 46% |
| 1 – Sao Paulo win | 45%51% · Elo 43% | 51%· Elo 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%51% | 51% |
| X – draw | 28%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%25% | 25% |
| 2 – Vasco win | 27%24% · Elo 28% | 24%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%29% | 29% |
Attack vs defence
Sao Paulo attack vs Vasco defenceattack1481defence1471+10 pts to the attack
Vasco attack vs Sao Paulo defenceattack1513defence1538−25 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 8.9 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.553%55%
9.540%43%
10.529%32%
11.520%26%
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 5.0, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 38%
Vascowe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 24.3 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.553%59%
24.547%51%
25.540%45%
26.534%40%
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 11.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Vascowe expect 12.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 48%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.574%78%
2.549%55%
3.527%34%
4.513%20%
Each team on its own
Sao Paulowe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Vascowe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Vasco matches average only 3.6 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Sao Paulo matches average 12.7 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Vasco score a lot late on: 9 of 22 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Sao Paulo: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Vasco: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35:35 | 39 |
| 14 | Vasco | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36:42 | 35 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vasco?
Sao Paulo are the favourites. Chances: Sao Paulo win 45%, draw 28%, Vasco win 27%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Vasco?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Sao Paulo 1.4, Vasco 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vasco?
The chance that both teams score is 51%.
When is Sao Paulo vs Vasco?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 18 October 2026, 01:00 (UK time).