Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 29

Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Qingdao Hainiu: prediction, tips and stats

Saturday 24 October · 08:30

Chongqing Tonglianglong

0-0 0-1 1-1 1-3 1-1

1.5:1.1Pre-match

Qingdao Hainiu

0-3 1-2 1-5 1-2 1-3

Our tips

Tip in 10d 5h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloChongqing Tonglianglong121550%50%Draw28%27%Qingdao Hainiu116022%24%

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.542%45%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1

H2Hlast meeting

24/05/202624/05/26Qingdao Hainiu0:1Chongqing TonglianglongW

Chongqing Tonglianglong's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses1.0 goals per match

too few to read anything into

Cornersleague corners9.8league 10.1under 10.5: 61%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.9under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Model1.5 : 0.9total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.5

Chongqing Tonglianglong : Qingdao Hainiu

Most likely scores

Model1-013%1-113%0-010%2-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-012%1-113%0-09%2-09%2-19%0-18%

ModelAttack/defence1-01-013%1-012%1-11-113%1-113%0-00-010%0-09%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%

Outcome	Model	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	79%76%	76%
1X – home team avoid defeat	78%73%	73%
12 – no draw	72%73%	73%
Over 1.5 goals	69%71%	71%
Under 2.5 goals	58%55%	55%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	50%54%	54%
1 – Chongqing Tonglianglong win	50%46% · Elo 50%	46%· Elo 50%
Over 2.5 goals	42%45%	45%
Under 1.5 goals	31%29%	29%
X – draw	28%27% · Elo 27%	27%· Elo 27%
2 – Qingdao Hainiu win	22%27% · Elo 24%	27%· Elo 24%
Over 3.5 goals	21%24%	24%

Attack vs defence

Chongqing Tonglianglong attack vs Qingdao Hainiu defenceattack1347defence1416−69 pts to the attack

Qingdao Hainiu attack vs Chongqing Tonglianglong defenceattack1400defence1507−107 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 53%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 47%

We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.560%59%

8.547%52%

9.534%42%

10.524%31%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Chongqing Tonglianglongwe expect 5.0, league average 5.0 · chance of over 4.5: 54%

Qingdao Hainiuwe expect 3.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 42%

Foulsleague average

Under 23.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%

We expect 23.1 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

22.552%52%

23.545%45%

24.539%39%

25.532%32%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Chongqing Tonglianglongwe expect 10.9, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 41%

Qingdao Hainiuwe expect 12.2, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 55%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%

We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.569%60%

3.548%43%

4.529%27%

5.516%18%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Chongqing Tonglianglongwe expect 2.3, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 65%

Qingdao Hainiuwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Qingdao Hainiu concede 2.8 goals per game
Chongqing Tonglianglong matches average only 2.1 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
Chongqing Tonglianglong: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Chongqing Tonglianglong score only 0.7 goals per game
Qingdao Hainiu score only 0.7 goals per game
Qingdao Hainiu: 10 defeats in a row
Chongqing Tonglianglong: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Qingdao Hainiu: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form