Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 28
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%58%O2.561%57%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast meeting
- Chongqing Tonglianglong0:0Yunnan YukunD
Yunnan Yukun's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses0.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners10.2league 10.1under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.9under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.1total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
Yunnan Yukun : Chongqing TonglianglongMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%2-09%1-08%3-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-08%1-09%3-16%1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-08%1-01-08%1-09%3-13-17%3-16%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%80% | 80% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 79%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%58% | 58% |
| 1 – Yunnan Yukun win | 57%53% · Elo 51% | 53%· Elo 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%42% | 42% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%35% | 35% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 26% | 24%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Chongqing Tonglianglong win | 21%24% · Elo 23% | 24%· Elo 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Yunnan Yukun attack vs Chongqing Tonglianglong defenceattack1570defence1507+63 pts to the attack
Chongqing Tonglianglong attack vs Yunnan Yukun defenceattack1347defence1399−52 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 9.2 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%59%
8.556%52%
9.544%42%
10.532%31%
Each team on its own
Yunnan Yukunwe expect 5.6, league average 5.0 · chance of over 4.5: 64%
Chongqing Tonglianglongwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 22.7 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.549%52%
23.542%45%
24.536%39%
25.530%32%
Each team on its own
Yunnan Yukunwe expect 11.2, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
Chongqing Tonglianglongwe expect 11.4, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 4.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.581%60%
3.563%43%
4.545%27%
5.528%18%
Each team on its own
Yunnan Yukunwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Chongqing Tonglianglongwe expect 2.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 75%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Chongqing Tonglianglong11 matches without a winaway: 6Went on 71%League 72%Model 79%Record 23
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Yunnan Yukun concede 2.9 goals per game
- Chongqing Tonglianglong matches average only 2.1 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Yunnan Yukun matches average only 2.5 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Yunnan Yukun score 2.4 goals per game
- Yunnan Yukun: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Chongqing Tonglianglong: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Yunnan Yukun: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Chongqing Tonglianglong: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55:58 | 38 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 28:33 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Yunnan Yukun are the favourites. Chances: Yunnan Yukun win 57%, draw 22%, Chongqing Tonglianglong win 21%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Yunnan Yukun 2.0, Chongqing Tonglianglong 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The Chinese Super League match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:35 (UK time).