Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 29
Henan Songshan Longmen vs Beijing Guoan: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%O2.557%55%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Beijing Guoan1:2Henan Songshan LongmenW
- Henan Songshan Longmen2:0Beijing GuoanW
- Beijing Guoan1:0Henan Songshan LongmenL
- Beijing Guoan1:1Henan Songshan LongmenD
- Henan Songshan Longmen2:1Beijing GuoanW
Henan Songshan Longmen's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.1under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.9over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.6total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Henan Songshan Longmen : Beijing GuoanMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-0—0-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-07%0-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-18%2-18%0-10-18%0-18%1-01-0—1-07%0-20-27%0-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 68%65% | 65% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%67% | 67% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 58%61% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Beijing Guoan win | 42%39% · Elo 45% | 39%· Elo 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%33% | 33% |
| 1 – Henan Songshan Longmen win | 32%35% · Elo 27% | 35%· Elo 27% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Henan Songshan Longmen attack vs Beijing Guoan defenceattack1478defence1562−84 pts to the attack
Beijing Guoan attack vs Henan Songshan Longmen defenceattack1641defence1553+88 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%59%
8.553%52%
9.540%42%
10.529%31%
Each team on its own
Henan Songshan Longmenwe expect 5.3, league average 5.0 · chance of over 4.5: 60%
Beijing Guoanwe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 24.3 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.560%52%
23.553%45%
24.547%39%
25.540%32%
Each team on its own
Henan Songshan Longmenwe expect 11.8, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Beijing Guoanwe expect 12.7, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 59%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%60%
3.544%43%
4.526%27%
5.513%18%
Each team on its own
Henan Songshan Longmenwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Beijing Guoanwe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Beijing Guoan score 2.3 goals per game
- Beijing Guoan: unbeaten in 13 matches
- Henan Songshan Longmen: no win in 8 matches
- Henan Songshan Longmen: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Beijing Guoan: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52:33 | 41 |
| 13 | Henan Songshan Longmen | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 35:37 | 28 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Henan Songshan Longmen vs Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan are the favourites. Chances: Henan Songshan Longmen win 32%, draw 26%, Beijing Guoan win 42%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Henan Songshan Longmen vs Beijing Guoan?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Henan Songshan Longmen 1.4, Beijing Guoan 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Henan Songshan Longmen vs Beijing Guoan?
The Chinese Super League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 08:30 (UK time).